\u3000\u3000 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (601633)
Event overview
The company released the performance express for 2021. The total revenue of the company in 2021 was 136.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 32.0%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 26.5%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 4.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.8%.
Analysis and judgment:
Accelerated expansion of scale and significant improvement of ASP
The revenue of 21q4 increased significantly and the scale expanded rapidly. The company's revenue in the single quarter of 21q4 reached 45.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.6% and a month on month increase of + 57.7%. Under the relief of core shortage in the fourth quarter, the company's sales volume increased significantly month on month, reaching 397000 units in 21q4, a month on month increase of + 49.3%. The expansion of the company has accelerated significantly. According to the semi annual report, as of the first half of 2021, the total number of employees of the company was 67000, a year-on-year increase of + 10.4%, an increase of 5.4% over the end of 2020. Looking forward to 2022, we expect the company to maintain a rapid pace of expansion.
The high-end effect is remarkable, and ASP has reached a new high in a single quarter. The company's product matrix is constantly enriched, the market share of Haval and pickup truck is stable, the brands of wey, Euler and tank are growing rapidly, and the new product cycle is full-scale and high-end. Single car ASP increased significantly. The single car ASP of 21q4 company reached 115000 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 20.0% and a month on month increase of + 5.6%. We think ASP will pull more significantly this year. From the perspective of new product structure:
Wey brand: it is expected that the whole department will launch dhtphev version in succession, consolidating its share in the range of 150000-200000 yuan;
Euler brand: the pure electric market with a force of more than 150000 yuan. The new ballet cat is expected to be listed in Q1 this year, and lightning cat and punk cat are expected to be listed in the middle of the year;
Tank brand: Tank 300 and 500 have strong orders. Tank 500 is expected to be delivered, and the product positioning is more high-end.
Non drag short-term performance, medium-term profit increased steadily
The performance of 21q4 was dragged down by the impact of non economic expenses such as Euler charging equity and equity incentive. According to the performance express, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 was 1.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 33.8% and a month on month increase of + 29.8%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 640 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of - 67.5% and a month on month increase of - 21.6%. Mainly due to the impact of non recurring profits and losses on the overall performance, superimposed on the rapid expansion of the company's personnel and bonus payment this year, we expect that the total impact of Euler charging equity + equity incentive provision on the net profit of a single quarter is about 1 billion yuan. In addition, the shortage of chips affects the production capacity. At present, the company's inventory is low and the orders on hand are strong. It is expected that the marginal improvement of chip supply in 2022, combined with the new product cycle, the improvement of ASP and sales volume is expected to drive the improvement of overall profits, and the scale effect under rapid expansion is expected to be gradually reflected.
Investment advice
The promotion of the company's new products outside China is progressing smoothly, a new cycle of intelligent electrification has been opened, the proportion of new energy intelligent models has increased rapidly, the leading position of luxury has become clearer, and the non vehicle business income is expected to accelerate the release. We are optimistic that the company will increase both volume and price this year, and raise the company's operating revenue forecast. From 2022 to 2023, the operating revenue will be increased from 167.33/186.07 billion yuan to 206.20/270.25 billion yuan. Considering the impact of short-term costs and amortization of equity incentives, we lowered our profit forecast. From 2022 to 2023, the net profit attributable to the parent company was reduced from 13.73/16.51 billion yuan to 12.37/15.86 billion yuan, EPS was reduced from 1.49/1.79 yuan to 1.34/1.72 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 43.26 yuan / share on January 24, 2022, and PE was 32 / 25 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The impact of lack of core is higher than expected; Downside risk of auto market; The market competition of wey, salon, haver and other brands intensifies, and the sales volume is lower than expected; The progress of going to sea was less than expected.
