\u3000\u3000 Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) (603908)
Event overview
The company released the performance forecast. In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 72-83 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 56.55% - 80.48%, deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 54-65 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 73.22% - 108.24%, slightly lower than expected. From a single quarter, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 was 01-12 million yuan, which turned around the loss year-on-year and still achieved profit in the off-season.
Analysis and judgment:
According to our analysis, the net profit of the company is slightly lower than expected mainly due to: (1) the profit margin of Q4 brand business is lower than Q3 due to the increased discounts of double 11 and double 12 activities. Q3 we estimate that the net profit margin of the brand is 13%; (2) Brand consulting fees are continuously included from Q3, and it is estimated that there are still more than 3 million in Q4; (3) OEM overseas production expansion is estimated to increase investment; (4) It is estimated that some inventory falling price losses have been accrued in the year-end inventory.
Investment advice
In the short term, (1) OEM business: there are sufficient orders, and we estimate that it is expected to maintain a growth rate of 20-30% in 2022; (2) Brand business: Damu's sales continued to boom. We estimate that the growth rate of double 11, double 12 and the off-season of new year's Day 1-7 will still more than double. In the medium term, the company announced the change of the raised investment project on January 7, which changed Xiaomu's store opening project into expanding Damu's storage, that is, from 16000 m2 to 46000 m2 in five years, and the corresponding storage area CAGR = 24%, boosting market confidence. In the long run, the current domestic / export revenue accounts for 3:7, the future domestic sales is expected to account for more than half, and the superimposed net interest rate is expected to improve to more than 15%. Maintain the profit forecast. It is estimated that the revenue in 2021-23 will be RMB 915 / 12.4 / 1519 million, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 82 / 124 / 159 million, the corresponding EPS will be RMB 1.23/1.86/2.39 respectively, the closing price on December 24, 2021 will be RMB 45.2, and the corresponding PE in 21-23 will be 37 / 24 / 19x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating. For the valuation of snowpeak, the target market value is 3-3.79 billion yuan and the target price is 45-56.8 yuan if it is given 30-45 times of brand business and 20 times of OEM in Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) 22 years.
Risk tips
The product iteration is not as expected, the epidemic situation is uncertain, the supply of campsites is not as expected, and there are systemic risks.
