\u3000\u3000 Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) (000672)
Event: focus on photovoltaic in three directions and lock in advantageous enterprises in energy storage layout
The company plans to invest 30 million yuan to sign the strategic cooperation framework agreement with sunshine new energy and Hefei Yixin to jointly establish a joint venture: Shangfeng sunshine new energy development Co., Ltd., and take the joint venture as the main body of the follow-up development of photovoltaic business. This cooperation relies on the resources of the base to locate the photovoltaic industry + financial investment in new energy. Photovoltaic is mainly divided into three directions: ① relying on the available resources such as the existing plant area, roof and mining area of each base, build a distributed photovoltaic power generation and energy storage integration project to solve the self consumption of each base; ② Introduce partners for bases and regions with conditional resources to jointly develop photovoltaic and energy storage projects to meet the green power demand of local surrounding enterprises; ③ Relying on the comprehensive resources of the base, jointly invest in new energy development projects such as photovoltaic energy storage. In addition, timely promote energy storage business cooperation and steadily carry out the investment layout of leading enterprises in energy storage technology.
Solve the problem of self consumption of electricity and benefit the surrounding areas, and traditional enterprises actively invest in green electricity
Energy conservation and emission reduction are directly linked to enterprise costs. In October 2021, the State Council issued the action plan for carbon peak before 2030, which proposed to make use of renewable energy according to local conditions in promoting the carbon peak of building materials industry. At the same time, as a high energy consuming industry, the trading price of cement market is not limited by an upward movement of 20%. Stricter energy consumption constraints and active layout of green power are an important response to the implementation of "double carbon". The company will give priority to the implementation of the integration projects above Tongling and Shangfeng in Huaining. The first step is to reduce the proportion of purchased electricity, which accounts for about 15% of the cement cost. At the same time, the company will complete the task of emission reduction, strive for the green electricity index for the traditional main industry, and the remaining electricity can also be sold to the surrounding peers. Cement peers actively explore new energy. Conch recently increased its capital in its new energy subsidiary, with the registered capital increased from 500 million yuan to 5 billion yuan; Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) in June last year, it planned to invest 1.339 billion in the phased construction of distributed photovoltaic power generation and energy storage integration project; Zoomlion cement will build four photovoltaic power generation projects during the 13th Five Year Plan period, with a total installed capacity of 12.23mw.
From the end of the policy to the end of the market, the cement demand is expected to improve month on month
Cement belongs to the construction type and is at the front end of the capital construction chain and real estate chain. In terms of infrastructure, the focus of positioning "steady growth", especially hedging the downward pressure of Q1 economy. In December 2021, the monthly infrastructure growth rate returned to a positive growth of 3.8% (full caliber calculation). In terms of real estate, the current real estate sales are sluggish, the new construction of land acquisition is sluggish, and the five-year LPR has been lowered for the first time since April 2020, which is conducive to the repair of market confidence. We judge that we are expected to see the marginal improvement of front-end sales, construction and other data in the next quarter. Since September last year, the monthly output of cement has declined in double digits for four consecutive months and month on month for four consecutive months, with rare amplitude and intensity. Before the Spring Festival, the off-season delivery dropped to 30-40%, and the price continued to decline. Last week, the national high-standard average price was 518 yuan / T, which was still 70 yuan higher than the same period last year, and decreased by 109 yuan from 622 yuan, the highest point in late October, 21. The price reduction is a normal off-season performance, and the policy has enhanced confidence. We expect the cement demand to improve marginally after the spring, whether in infrastructure or real estate.
Investment advice
We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021-23 will be RMB 2.509 billion, RMB 2.809 billion and RMB 2.915 billion respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE of the closing price on January 24 will be 7, 6 and 6 times respectively. It will be covered for the first time and given a "recommended" rating.
Risk warning: the weather change is less than expected; The progress of green power investment is less than expected; Risk of policy changes in China.
