\u3000\u3000 Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) (688598)
Key investment points
The performance forecast exceeded market expectations and the profitability was stable
The company's revenue and profit forecasts exceeded market expectations. It is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 1.32-1.34 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 210% - 214%, and wind's consensus expectation is 1.17 billion yuan; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 490-510 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 191% - 200%. Wind unanimously expects it to be 450 million yuan. In the comments on the third quarterly report of the company in 2021, our profit forecast is 480 million yuan; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 440-460 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 204% - 215%; The net interest rate is 37% - 38%. In a single quarter of Q4, the operating revenue was 440-450 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 216% - 228%. We expect the company's Q4 shipment to be 560 tons, with a unit price of about 800000 yuan / ton; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 160-170 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 189% - 219% and a month on month increase of + 20% - 32%; The net interest rate is 35% - 39%. Under the background of carbon fiber price rise, technology cost reduction maintains high profitability.
The technology reduces the cost, stabilizes the gross profit margin, and the scale effect is favorable to the net profit margin
In the past, due to the cost reduction of technology, Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) gross profit margin has been maintained at more than 60% from 2018 to 2020. We assume that the price per ton in 2022-2023 will be 700000 yuan and 650000 yuan / ton respectively, Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) gross profit margin will be maintained at about 54% from 2022-2023, and the price reduction of products has little impact on the leader of high gross profit; At the same time, with the prominent scale effect, the impact of price reduction on net interest rate is weakened, and the profit safety margin is high.
C / C thermal field is in short supply and Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) will increase code and expand production
According to our statistics and calculation, the total C / C capacity of the whole market from 2021 to 2023 exceeded 4400 tons, 8400 tons and 9200 tons respectively; The demand mainly comes from "addition + replacement". The total demand of C / C heat field in the whole market from 2021 to 2022 is about 6100 tons and 8000 tons respectively. The supply and demand is in tight balance in 2022. However, since the orders of the thermal field in 2021 have been scheduled to the end of 2022 (by the end of 2021, the amount of orders on hand by the company is 973 million yuan (tax included), corresponding to 1145 tons of C / C thermal field), the order demand in 2022 will be scheduled to 2023. In October 2021, the company announced that it would raise no more than 3.103 billion yuan, of which 1.8 billion yuan would be used to build a capacity expansion project of 1500 tons of high-purity large-scale advanced carbon matrix composites per year. We expect the company to reach a capacity of 3150 tons by the end of 2023 to ensure sufficient capacity for the performance of the contract.
Layout the SiC thermal field with broad market space. The market space of the thermal field facing the second growth curve is 20% of the SiC device market space. We calculate that the SiC thermal field market space will exceed 7 billion yuan in 2025. SiC has high requirements for purity. The company has rich technical reserves in improving product purity. It can achieve purity levels of grade I ＜ 200ppm, grade II ＜ 100ppm and grade III ＜ 30ppm. It has the ability to prepare < 5ppm coating process, and is breaking through the SiC field with higher purity requirements.
Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) promote the cost reduction of carbon ceramic brake materials, create supply and demand, and open the downstream market space. We calculate that the Chinese market space of carbon ceramic brake pads will reach 8.3 billion yuan in 2025, and the global market space will exceed 30 billion yuan. Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) it is estimated that the unit price of carbon ceramic brake system can be reduced to less than 10000 yuan. The company's products are being verified by well-known Chinese automobile enterprises. We expect to get batch orders after passing the verification in 2022.
Profit forecast and investment rating: with the downstream expansion + technology iteration, we adjusted the parent net profit forecast of the company from RMB 480 / 640 / 910 million to RMB 5.0 (up 4%) / 6.6 (up 3%) / 900 (down 1%). The corresponding PE of the current stock price is 47 / 36 / 26 times, maintaining the "buy in" rating.
Risk warning: downstream capital expenditure is lower than expected; Equipment R & D and market development were lower than expected.
