\u3000\u3000 Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) (603008)
The performance is beautiful, exceeding market expectations. The company disclosed the announcement on the advance increase of annual performance in 2021. The company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 550-560 million yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 75.5% - 78.7%; The central bank was 555 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 77.1%; The company expects to realize a net profit of 495-505 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 57.95% - 61.14%; The central bank was 500 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 59.5%.
Corresponding to 2021q4, the growth rate of net profit attributable to parent company is 32% - 40%. According to the calculation of performance forecast, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 was 176-186 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 32.1% - 39.6%, and a month on month increase of 15.6% - 19.0% over 2021q3; The central bank was 181 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 35.8%. In 2021q4, the net profit deducted from non parent company was 170-180 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.7% - 23.5%; The central bank was 175 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 20.1%.
The independent brand business is advancing rapidly, and the equity incentive stimulates the vitality of the team. Since 2020q2, the company has fully grasped the opening opportunities brought by the clearing of small and medium-sized brands after the epidemic, and the retail independent brand business has maintained rapid growth and rapidly increased its market share. In 2021q1-3, the company's independent brand retail business revenue was 3.271 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 85%; Among them, the revenue of 2021q3 was 1.279 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 58%. In December 2021, the company disclosed the 2021 stock option incentive plan and the draft employee stock ownership plan, covering a total of 209 employees, fully binding the interests of the company and the core backbone. The performance assessment objectives of the incentive scheme are as follows: 1) based on the income in 2020, the growth rate of operating income from 2022 to 2024 will not be less than 66%, 108% and 160%, and the corresponding operating income will be 9.335 billion yuan, 11.696 billion yuan and 14.621 billion yuan respectively; 2) Based on the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2020, the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 shall not be less than 128%, 195% and 285%, and the corresponding net profit attributable to the parent company shall be 715 million yuan, 925 million yuan and 1207 million yuan respectively. Based on the calculation of the performance forecast center in 2021, the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company corresponding to the performance assessment goal in 2022 is 28.8%.
Profit forecast and investment rating: with the rapid growth of independent brands, accelerated channel expansion and the superposition of the "furniture to the countryside" policy, the performance forecast in 2021 exceeded the market expectation. We raised the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to RMB 550, 730 and 930 million (previously predicted to be RMB 520, 720 and 930 million), corresponding to pe25, 19 and 15x. The development momentum of independent brands is strong, Option incentive and employee stock ownership demonstrate the development confidence of the management and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: price fluctuation of raw materials; Industry competition intensifies, channels sink less than we expected, RMB exchange rate fluctuations, etc.
