\u3000\u3000 Zhejiang Juhua Co.Ltd(600160) (600160)
In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 959% – 1148% in advance, maintaining the “buy” rating
On January 24, 2022, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company is RMB 1.01-1.19 billion, with a year-on-year increase of about 959% – 1148%; It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in the single quarter of 2021q4 is 750-930 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 1219% – 1535% and a month on month increase of about 388% – 505%. As the price of methane chloride and other refrigerant raw materials increased significantly in the second half of the year, as a global leading refrigerant enterprise integrating the industrial chain, the company’s performance exceeded our expectations. We raised the company’s profit forecast. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.012 (+ 1.75), 13.61 (+ 1.37), 2.031 (+ 184) million, and EPS will be RMB 0.37, 0.50 and 0.75 per share respectively, The current share price corresponds to 30.8, 22.9 and 15.4 times of PE from 2021 to 2023, maintaining the “buy” rating.
The volume and price of the company’s main products rise together, and the cycle “rehearsal” flexibility is considerable
According to the announcement of the company, the average prices of refrigerants, fluoropolymers and fluorochemical raw materials of the company in 2021 were 19220, 57235 and 4531 yuan / ton (excluding tax, the same below), with a year-on-year increase of + 41.6%, + 39.0% and + 80.91% respectively; The output was 453000, 38000 and 808000 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.6%, + 31.5% and – 3.5% respectively. Among them, the output and external sales volume of HFCS refrigerant in 2021 were 287000 tons and 214000 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.6% and + 3.2% respectively. The annual average price was 20000 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 42.3%. Among them, the price of HFCS refrigerant of Q4 company was + 76.2% year-on-year and + 18.1% month on month. Affected by the “double control” of energy consumption and the lack of phased supply, the price of the company’s main raw materials rose sharply, driving the price of refrigerant up, and the company’s profit as a fluorine chlorine integration enterprise increased significantly. Although the market at the bottom of the industry boom is relatively short, it confirms to a certain extent that refrigerant can bring strong performance flexibility to the company in the future. We believe that as the benchmark period of HFCS refrigerant quota has entered the last year, the market’s bullish expectation is more and more clear, and the trend market is approaching.
PVDF production capacity will reach 10000 t / A in 2022, and 5000 t / a submerged coolant project is planned to be constructed
According to the company’s investor Q & A disclosure, the company has built a PVDF production capacity of 3500 tons / year, and the remaining 6500 tons / year production capacity is expected to be completed in the first half of 2022, which is expected to continue to contribute higher profits to the company. In addition, the immersion coolant independently developed by the company has broken the foreign monopoly, and now the planned production capacity is 5000 tons / year, of which the phase I 1000 tons / year project is in the construction stage, and the future growth space is very broad.
Risk tips: safety production risk, policy change risk, sluggish terminal consumption, etc.
