\u3000\u3000 Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) (603986)
Event: the company issued a 21 year performance forecast.
The performance exceeded expectations, and the annual profit increased significantly to a new high. The company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years to be RMB 2.28-2.42 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 159% - 175%, corresponding to the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 of RMB 630-770 million, with a year-on-year increase of 204% - 271%, continuing the bright performance in the third quarter and significant performance in the second half of the year. It is estimated that the net profit deducted from non parent company is RMB 2.17-2.31 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 290% - 315%, which is mainly due to the non recurring income of about RMB 230 million recognized by the company in the past 20 years. Benefiting from the intelligent demand of terminals and the localization trend of supply chain, the market demand of the company's products continues to be strong, actively explore new markets and optimize product structure; On the supply side, the company promotes the diversified layout of the supply chain, actively responds to supply shortages, and provides strong capacity guarantee for performance growth.
The storage business continues to grow at a high speed, with multi-dimensional growth in performance, technology and application. The company's storage business revenue in the first three quarters increased by about 1.93 billion yuan year-on-year, yoy + 83%. Norflash continues to maintain its leading technology and market position, and provides a number of product series with high performance, large capacity, low power consumption and small package for different scenarios. The process is converted from 65nm to 55nm. At present, 55nm products account for about 30%. In terms of scene application, the proportion of industrial and automobile sales continues to increase. Gd25spinorflash fully meets the vehicle specification level aec-q100 certification. The 2MB ~ 2GB capacity of flash vehicle specification level products is fully paved, which has been adopted in batches in many automobile enterprises, mainly used in on-board auxiliary driving system, on-board communication system, on-board information and entertainment system, battery management system, etc, The sales volume of vehicle specification products is growing. In addition, the company's first self-developed DRAM product 4gbddr4 was mass produced in June this year and has obtained corresponding orders in IPTV, security, consumer and other fields. The proportion of the company's own DRAM brand revenue is expected to increase and become a new revenue contribution point in the future.
With the continuous expansion of product line, MCU has broad growth space. The company's MCU products grew well in many fields. The revenue in the first three quarters increased by about 1.1 billion yuan year-on-year, yoy + 222%. 1) In the industrial field, the company has mass produced motor drive chips for 21 years, which can be used in power tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , industrial automation and so on; 2) In the field of consumer electronics and IOT, the company has successfully mass produced power management chips, and has successfully developed the first generation of WiFi wireless products and the first generation of low-power products. 3) In the field of automotive electronics, the company's MCU products are advancing towards the front loading gauge market. The first vehicle gauge MCU product has been rolled out and is expected to achieve mass production in the middle of 22 years. The company continues to evolve the positioning of "MCU department store", enrich products in industry regulations, vehicle regulations, consumption and other fields, and open long-term incremental space.
We predict that the company's earnings per share in the year 21-23 will be 3.42/4.45/5.32 yuan respectively (the original forecast for the year 21-23 is 2.44/3.23/3.91 yuan, mainly increasing the business income and gross profit margin and slightly reducing the R & D expense rate). According to the 22-year 47 times PE valuation of the comparable company, the corresponding target price is 209.15 yuan, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
New product development is not as expected; Goodwill impairment risk; Gross profit margin is lower than expected; The market share of norflash, MCU and other products is lower than expected.
