\u3000\u3000 Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) (300122)
Event: on the evening of January 24, 2022, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 9.904-10.564 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 200% – 220%; The non net profit deducted was RMB 9.969-10.633 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 200% – 220%.
The performance forecast is in line with expectations, and the conventional varieties continue to develop. According to the performance forecast, the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.500-2.161 billion in the fourth quarter alone (the median is RMB 1.831 billion), with a year-on-year increase of 82.4% – 162.6%; The non net profit deducted was RMB 1.551-2.215 billion (the median was RMB 1.883 billion), with a year-on-year increase of 88.5% – 169.1%. Since the second half of the year, the company has significantly accelerated the issuance of HPV vaccine batches on a month on month basis. According to the data of the Central Inspection Institute, we expect that the annual revenue of HPV vaccine agents is about 15-16 million, of which about 1.3-1.4 billion yuan was contributed in the fourth quarter. The company’s recombinant covid-19 vaccine was approved for emergency use in China in March 21. The phase III clinical trial data of covid-19 vaccine released by the company in August showed high protective efficacy against mutant strains and was globally competitive. In the fourth quarter, as the first round of covid-19 vaccination in China is coming to an end, we expect the company’s covid-19 vaccine Q4 to contribute less. At present, the company’s recombinant covid-19 vaccine has been approved for emergency use in Indonesia, Colombia and other places. At the same time, it is actively promoting who certification to seek a larger overseas market.
The self-developed varieties have entered the cashing period, and the preventive micro card is expected to start rapid and large-scale production in 22 years. Recently, the company’s self-developed pipeline has made a lot of progress. 1) it was announced on January 24 that the freeze-dried human rabies vaccine (MRC-5 cells) has obtained the summary report of phase III clinical trial, and the test results are good; 2) The production of human diploid crazy vaccine and tetravalent influenza vaccine is expected to be reported in the first half of 22 years, and both have the potential to become large consumer varieties; 2) 15 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, tetravalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine and bivalent dysentery conjugate vaccine are in phase III clinical, and the company has rich reserves of independent R & D projects. At the same time, the company’s newly approved preventive micro card vaccine in 21 years is orderly promoting the bidding and access work around the country, and is expected to start rapid and large-scale production in 22 years. The preventive microcard vaccine has potential demand for patients infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis but not developing tuberculosis. The company is a global leader in progress. Its competitor GSK is currently in clinical phase II and is expected to enjoy the market exclusively in 2-3 years. Previously, the company’s EC test for tuberculosis screening has been approved. With the approval of micro card, the tuberculosis product matrix will gradually start to work. Considering that the net interest rate of self-produced products is about 35%, it is expected to make a great contribution to the company’s profits.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: out of caution, we did not consider the increase of covid-19 vaccine in the profit forecast. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 21.662 billion, 26.170 billion and 31.203 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 42.61%, 20.81% and 19.23%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.690, 6.029 and 7.679 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 42.08%, 28.54% and 27.37%, corresponding to EPS of 2.93, 3.77 and 4.80 yuan. In 2022, the 4-price and 9-price HPV vaccines will continue to be sold in large quantities, and the pipeline under research is expected to be realized gradually to maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning event: the risk that the resumption of production of AC Hib vaccine is less than expected, and the sales of HPV vaccine series is less than expected. The risk that the products under development are not approved as expected, and the product quality risk of the same industry
