\u3000\u3000 Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) (300122)
Events
On January 24, the company announced the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 9.9 ~ 10.56 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 200% ~ 220%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 9.97 ~ 10.63 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 200% ~ 220%.
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter of 2021 will reach 1.5 ~ 2.16 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 82% ~ 163%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 1.55 ~ 2.22 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 85% ~ 164%.
Business analysis
Independent products and agent products resonate in large quantities, and the performance has increased rapidly. In 2021, the company’s agent product line maintained steady and rapid growth, and the batch issuance of nine valent HPV vaccine and four valent HPV vaccine increased rapidly. Mycobacterium bovis for injection of heavy-duty products was approved in June 21 to increase indications and prevent pulmonary tuberculosis among people with latent infection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. As of November 2021, 10 provincial units have achieved bidding access. In the future, the tuberculosis product line is expected to achieve rapid and large-scale production with the strong sales of the company.
The overseas access of recombinant subunit protein covid-19 vaccine has been continuously promoted and has broad prospects. The company’s recombinant protein covid-19 vaccine was approved for emergency use in China in March 2021. The overall protective efficacy was 81.76%, and the protective efficacy of severe and above cases and death cases was 100%. The preliminary analysis results also showed that the product had good protective efficacy against the mutant strain. At present, the company’s recombinant covid-19 vaccine has been approved for emergency use and sales in Uzbekistan, Indonesia and Colombia. Overseas exports are expected to make continuous progress in the future.
The pipeline under research is gradually promoted, and many products are in the late stage of clinical treatment. The company adheres to the two wheel drive of “technology + market” and continues to increase R & D investment. The freeze-dried human rabies vaccine (MRC-5 cells) has obtained the summary report of phase III clinical trial. The phase III clinical trials of tetravalent influenza virus split vaccine, 15 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine and freeze-dried human rabies vaccine (Vero cells) have been promoted in an orderly manner, with a solid foundation for future growth.
Profit adjustment and investment suggestions
Considering the company’s announcement, we raised the company’s 21-year profit expectation by 113%, and temporarily ignored the contribution of covid-19 vaccine to the company’s performance in 2022 and 23. It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 10.143 billion, 6.267 billion and 7.505 billion from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 207%, – 38% and 20%.
Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Vaccine market competition intensifies risks; The R & D and sales progress of independent products did not meet expectations; Risk of covid-19 virus mutation; Policy price reduction risk; Accounts receivable and inventory turnover risk, etc.
