\u3000\u3000 Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) (300841)
Event: on the evening of January 24, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the annual net profit attributable to the parent company will be 808-840 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 98.02% - 105.86%; The non net profit deducted was 538-570 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 33.51% - 41.45%.
Q4 production capacity was released, and the quantity and price of exclusive diploid crazy seedlings increased at the same time. Taking the median value of the performance forecast, it is estimated that the company will realize the deduction of non net profit of 554 million yuan in the whole year, and the non recurring profit and loss is mainly the profit and loss from the change of fair value of the joint-stock company of about 270 million yuan; The non net profit deducted in the fourth quarter alone was 210 million yuan (median), which was significantly higher than that in the first three quarters. At the end of May 2021, the company announced that the technical transformation of the second workshop of viral vaccine was completed, and the production capacity of the company's core variety human diploid crazy vaccine was expanded from 3 million to 5 million. In the fourth quarter, the production capacity was released and the price was increased, driving the high growth of performance. According to the data disclosed by the Chinese people's Procuratorate, the company issued 7 / 17 / 12 / 27 batches of diploid rabies vaccine in a single quarter in 2021. Due to the rapid ramp up of the company's production capacity, we expect the output of a single batch to be about 100000, most of which were issued in late December. Therefore, some revenue will still be recognized in the first quarter of this year. We are still optimistic that with the gradual release of new production capacity, human diploid crazy seedlings will continue to increase rapidly. In the long run, we expect that from 2024 to 2026, the company's total production capacity of diploid crazy seedlings is expected to reach 11 million pieces / year, the company's peak revenue is expected to reach 3-3.3 billion yuan, and the profit is expected to reach 1.35-1.5 billion yuan.
Entering the field of pet crazy seedlings is expected to cultivate new performance growth points. In September 2021, the company arranged the pet rabies vaccine market and acted as the agent of Hangzhou Youben's omni-channel distributor in Greater China. Hangzhou Youben's pet rabies vaccine has been delivered in the first batch in late January. At present, it has covered more than 3000 pet hospitals. It is expected to sell in large quantities since 22 years, bringing new performance growth points.
Broaden the pipeline under research and lay a foundation for long-term development. The company is developing a series of pipeline varieties, such as adsorbed tetanus vaccine, hexavalent norovirus vaccine, diphtheria genetic engineering vaccine and rotavirus genetic engineering vaccine, which are in preclinical stage and look forward to making progress step by step. In addition, the company made a forward-looking layout of mRNA technology. In October 2020, the company participated in the a-round financing of mRNA enterprise Aibo biology, and the shareholding ratio after capital increase was 2.34%, enriching the foundation for long-term development.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: according to the performance forecast, we adjusted the profit forecast. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.430, 2.080 and 2.956 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 37.68%, 45.48% and 42.10%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 801, 855 and 1252 million yuan (693, 850 and 1286 million yuan before adjustment), with a year-on-year increase of 96.33%, 6.77% and 46.41%. The company is the leader of the Chinese diploid crazy seedling market segment. Benefiting from the release of production capacity, the company will maintain rapid growth, strong long-term growth and "buy" rating in the next five years.
Risk tips: the competitive risk of human diploid cell rabies vaccine on the market and Vero cell rabies vaccine, the competitive risk caused by the relatively single product structure, the risk that the market space of human diploid rabies vaccine is less than expected, the risk of adverse reaction events of vaccine, and the risk of policy and supervision.
