\u3000\u3000 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (601633)
Event: on January 23, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) released the performance express of 2021. In 2021, the total operating revenue was 136.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 32.0%, the net profit was 6.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 26.5%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 4.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.8%.
The product structure is optimized, the volume and price rise together, and the brand premium ability is expected to continue to strengthen. According to the company’s equity incentive guidelines, the company’s sales / profit targets in 2021 are 1.49 million vehicles / 6.8 billion yuan respectively, and the actual completion rate is 86.0% / 99.7% respectively. The revenue of 2021q4 was 45.52 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 11% / month on month increase of + 58%. With the gradual increase of the sales proportion of wey and tank brands, the product structure improved significantly. ASP in 2021q4 reached 115000 yuan in a single quarter, nearly 20000 yuan higher than 96000 yuan in 2020q4, 6300 yuan higher than 2021q3, a record high, and the brand premium ability continued to improve. In 2021q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.84 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 34%, which was lower than the market expectation, mainly due to the increase in the number of employees, the improvement of salary, Euler charging equity and equity incentive fees. In the long run, such expenses will build the company’s long-term competitiveness. With the continuous dilution of revenue and sales, the brand premium ability will continue to strengthen.
The strong product cycle continues, and the implementation of multi brand strategy and hybrid technology contributes to the high growth of sales in 2022. In 2021, the company’s multi brand strategy was implemented, and new vehicles such as Haval beast, Haval red rabbit, cat GT, wey Mocha, macido DHT, global version of Great Wall gun, gun and black bullet were intensively listed. Among them, Haval beast was listed in December 2021, and nearly 7000 units were delivered in the first month; The 300 / 500 tanks are sold well when they are on the market. At present, there are about 150000 orders in hand; The Great Wall pickup truck has maintained the first export sales volume in China for 24 consecutive years, accounting for nearly 50%. In 2022, the company’s strong product cycle will continue. Many high-end new cars such as Euler ballet cat / punk cat / lightning cat, tank 700 / 800, diamond gun and salon brand mecha dragon will be listed one after another. The implementation of multi brand strategy and DHT hybrid technology will help continuously optimize the product matrix. It is estimated that the company’s sales volume in 2022 will be 1.9 million (year-on-year + 48%).
The layout of the electric intelligent industry chain was accelerated, and the scientific and technological transformation was fully enabled. In terms of electrification, honeycomb energy will mass produce the world’s first cobalt free battery in 2021. In the future, it will focus on the global short knife, covering the global chemical systems of cobalt free, ternary lithium and lithium iron phosphate. In terms of intelligence, coffee intelligence 2.0 has been fully upgraded and has been equipped with a variety of models; In September 2021, smart bank released the magic box 3.0 platform, the world’s highest computing power autopilot computing platform that can be mass produced. At the same time, it realized the landing of high-speed pilot assisted driving. In November, it realized the mass production and listing of intelligent pilot assisted driving system Noh, and plans to realize the urban / full scene Noh function in 2022. The company’s scientific and technological transformation will realize comprehensive product empowerment, and independent leaders are expected to achieve a new round of high-quality growth.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 6.782/11.25/14.459 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 59 / 36 / 28 times of the current share price PE respectively. The company fully promotes the development of differentiated competition and electric intelligence. Wey, tank, Euler and other brands will launch a number of new models, which are expected to become new performance growth points and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the mitigation of chip supply is less than expected, the recovery of passenger car market is less than expected, and the product landing is less than expected.
