\u3000\u3000 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (601633)
Conclusions and suggestions:
In December, the company sold 162000 complete vehicles, mom + 32.5%, yoy + 8.2%. From January to December, the company sold 1119000 complete vehicles, yoy + 16.3%. The company’s sales performance is far better than that of its peers.
At present, the company makes dual efforts in brand and technology. On the one hand, the company strengthens marketing activities in combination with the positioning of different brands, on the other hand, it increases investment in autopilot, intelligent cockpit, hybrid technology and other aspects to improve product competitiveness. At the same time, the company actively expanded overseas markets and steadily increased overseas sales. We expect the net profits of the company in 2021, 2022 and 2023 to be 6.96 billion yuan, 10.36 billion yuan and 13.69 billion yuan respectively, and yoy to be + 30%, + 49% and + 32% respectively; EPS is 0.75 yuan, 1.12 yuan and 1.48 yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to 59 times, 40 times and 30 times P / E of A-Shares in 2021, 2022 and 2023, and 30 times, 20 times and 15 times P / E of H shares. It is suggested that ah shares “buy”.
In December, the company’s sales volume continued to grow, and the annual sales volume was much better than that of the same industry: the company sold 162000 complete vehicles in December, mom + 32.5%, yoy + 8.2%. According to models, the monthly sales of Haval brand in December were 94000, yoy-10.5%, mom + 36.5%; Haval big dog sold 13000 vehicles in December, and 7000 vehicles were delivered in the first month of listing. Wey brand sells 10000 vehicles a month, yoy + 0.3%, mom + 60.1%. 25000 pickup trucks were sold this month, yoy + 15.7%, mom + 20.3%. Euler brand sold 20900 vehicles this month, yoy + 64.2%, mom + 29.7%, of which Euler good cat sold more than 10000, mom + 13%, and the sales volume continued to grow month on month. The monthly sales of tank brand is 12000, mom + 18.3%.
From January to December, the company sold 1119000 complete vehicles, yoy + 16.3%. The company pays attention to the consumption needs of young users, deeply subdivides the market, strengthens personalized marketing, and creates a variety of “online Red” models, which makes the annual sales volume of the company far better than that of its peers. Among them, the cumulative sales of Haval brand is 770000, yoy + 2.6%. In addition to the star products Haval H6 and M6, the cumulative sales of Haval big dog is also more than 100000; With the listing of new cars, divine beasts and cool dogs, the brand image will tend to be younger. Euler brand has sold 135000 vehicles in total, yoy + 140%, of which 63000 and 51000 are sold by Euler black cat and good cat respectively; Ballet cat and lightning cat will be listed one after another this year. The unit price will reach the range of 150000-200000, and the brand value is expected to improve. A total of 84000 new brand tanks have been sold, and 500 tanks have been opened for pre-sale. At present, the products are in short supply. Great Wall pickups sold 233000 vehicles, yoy + 3.6%. Wey brand has sold 58000 vehicles, yoy-26%. More models equipped with lemon hybrid platform will be launched this year, and the sales volume may improve.
The company accelerated its overseas layout and increased the proportion of exports: in 2021, the company exported 142800 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 104%, and the export sales volume accounted for 11.1% of the total sales volume of the whole year, 4.8 percentage points higher than that in 2020. The company has actively explored overseas markets and has entered Russia, ASEAN, South America and other markets; The company’s manufacturing plants in Russia and Thailand have been put into use, and has signed an agreement with Daimler to acquire the plant in Brazil. The company has introduced Haval F7, H6, good cat, jolion and other models to overseas markets, and subsequent tanks and Haval dogs will also be listed overseas one after another. The company introduces competitive intelligent and new energy models for different regional markets, which will effectively share the development cost of single model, improve business efficiency, increase international popularity and enhance the company’s image.
Profit expectation: we expect the net profit of the company in 2021, 2022 and 2023 to be 6.96 billion yuan, 10.36 billion yuan and 13.69 billion yuan respectively, and yoy to be + 30%, + 49% and + 32% respectively; EPS is 0.75 yuan, 1.12 yuan and 1.48 yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to 59 times, 40 times and 30 times P / E of A-Shares in 2021, 2022 and 2023, and 30 times, 20 times and 15 times P / E of H shares. It is suggested that ah shares “buy”.
