\u3000\u3000 China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) (601888)
The company released the annual performance express for 2021. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 67.669 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.65%, an operating profit of 14.736 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.02%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 9.592 billion yuan, an increase of 56.23% over the same period last year. The operation of 21q4 company is greatly affected by the epidemic situation. After the impact of the epidemic situation has weakened in 22 years, after the opening and recovery of various channels, the performance is expected to have room for improvement.
Key points supporting rating
Q4 performance is under pressure due to the epidemic, and Q1 profit in 22 years is expected to increase. In 2021, the company achieved revenue of 67.669 billion yuan, yoy + 58.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 9.592 billion yuan, yoy + 56.23%. According to the split calculation of a single quarter, the company’s Q4 expected operating revenue of 18.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.08%, and realized a net profit of 1.101 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 63%. It was mainly due to the impact of the epidemic disturbance that the company increased its discount and superimposed the background of high base in the same period last year. Therefore, the growth of the company’s revenue was suspended and the profit decreased. In January 22, the discount intensity of China free was narrowed, from 30% off for 3 pieces to 75% off for 3 pieces, and a series of coupons were cancelled. In addition, Q1 is the peak season of traditional tourism in Hainan. The company’s revenue is expected to further increase and its profit margin is expected to gradually improve.
The tax exemption policy will continue to increase, which may promote the accelerated development of the company. The 14th five year plan for China’s trade development and the 14th five year plan for tourism development have been issued one after another. The two rules refer to the improvement of tax-free policies, so as to promote the orderly development of China’s tax-free industry; Accelerate the construction of Hainan free trade port and international tourism consumption center. As a tax-free leader, the company is expected to accelerate the development of tax-free business under the background of favorable policies and double cycle of consumption outside China.
The duty-free market in Hainan continues to consolidate, and the performance of new stores in 22 years is expected to be realized. Meilan Airport Phase II duty-free store has been officially put into operation at the end of the year 21. Sanya Phoenix Airport duty-free store is expected to expand in the year 22. The duty-free business center of Haikou international duty-free city is expected to open in the middle of the year 22. The company’s sales in Hainan may increase significantly in the year 22.
Valuation
The disturbing factors of the short-term epidemic are still there, but the competition pattern of the company’s medium and long-term development remains unchanged, and the rebound of passenger flow will effectively promote the improvement of performance. Therefore, it is prudent to lower the company’s forecast. It is predicted that the company’s EPS in 21-23 years will be 4.92/6.53/8.53 yuan, and the corresponding P / E ratio will be 40.8/30.7/23.5 times respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
Main risks of rating
The opening of the country has diverted sales to outlying islands, intensified competition in the tax-free market, and the implementation of the policy is less than expected.
