\u3000\u3000 Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) (603986)
Events
On January 24, the company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.28-2.42 billion in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 158.9% - 174.8%, deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.17-2.31 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 290.3% - 315.5%, which is in line with the expectation.
Commentary
The net profit increased significantly in 21 years. In 2021, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.28-2.42 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 158.88% - 174.78%, and a net profit deducting non attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.167-2.307 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 290.25% - 315.46%; 21q4 achieved a net profit of 633-773 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 204.33% - 271.63%. The sharp increase in net profit is mainly due to: 1) the trend of terminal intelligent demand and supply chain localization is becoming more and more obvious; 2) Increase R & D and new product layout; 3) Continuous optimization of product structure.
Storage highlights: norflash is gradually weakly cyclical, and the volume of niche DRAM can be expected. 1) Although the price of some consumer applications norflash has been reduced before, the price of norflash in automotive, industrial and other industry markets is still strong and the demand continues to be strong, and the main new demand in these fields is high-capacity norflash. At present, Zhaoyi norflash is gradually abandoning 32MB and other low-capacity products and focusing on 64MB ~ 2GB and other medium and high-capacity products, among which norflash for Industry and automobile is growing rapidly. 2) Trendforce data shows that the recent decline in storage prices has narrowed and gradually stabilized. Among them, DRAM spot prices have temporarily stopped falling, and nandflash prices have fluctuated slightly, which is earlier than our expectations, which is in line with our previous prediction of small storage cycle, and Samsung, Hynix and other large manufacturers are shrinking niche DRAM capacity, We believe that after the large-scale volume of niche DRAM developed by Zhaoyi in 22 years (it is expected that the company will launch 17nmddr3 series products in the first half of this year), the overall price is unlikely to fall sharply. The sales revenue of niche DRAM in 22 years is expected to be 1.6-2 billion yuan. Therefore, we still maintain the previous optimistic expectation of 22 years of storage.
MCU highlights: expect MCU shipment according to vehicle regulations, and increase the proportion of industry + automobile. Although we expect that there will be price reduction pressure on consumer MCU in 22 years, we are still optimistic about the driving force of automobile and industry on MCU, especially the demand for MCU by new energy vehicles will increase from 50 ~ 70 to 100, and the upgrading of industrial intelligence will also drive the demand for MCU to grow exponentially. The proportion of Zhaoyi automobile + industry has reached 30% in 21 years and is expected to increase to more than 50% in 22 years. With the launch of vehicle rail MCU in June and July this year, it is expected that the vehicle gauge MCU in 23 years will be mass produced and contribute revenue. Therefore, we maintain the view of sustained growth of MCU this year and continue to be optimistic about the high growth of MCU in 23 years and beyond.
Investment advice
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21-23 years will be RMB 2392 million, RMB 3138 million and RMB 4426 million, with a year-on-year increase of 171.55%, 31.19% and 41.07%, an increase of 4% / 12% / 33%, and continue to maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The launch of new products is less than expected; The risk of lifting the ban on restricted shares; The risk of Hefei Changxin being sanctioned by the United States.
