\u3000\u3000 Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) (002345)
Performance review
The company announced on January 24 that the net profit attributable to the parent company for 21 years was RMB 330-350 million, with a same increase of 136.23% ~ 150.55%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 320 ~ 340 million yuan, with an increase of 138.91% ~ 153.84%.
By quarter, the net profit attributable to the parent company in each quarter from 1 to 4q21 increased by 562.47% / 167.27% / 23.51% / - 23.82% ~ 10.10% respectively; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company to turn the loss into profit / increase by 193.53% / 25.70% / - 27.09% ~ 5.49% respectively. The growth of 4q21 net profit slowed down month on month, which is expected to be related to the slowdown of 4q21 retail growth of gold and jewelry.
Business analysis
Industry: the retail sales of 4q21 gold and jewelry increased by 4.95% at the same time, and the growth rate slowed down month on month, with a compound increase of 9.07% compared with 19 years. Both volume and price contribute, and the wedding needs to be further recovered in the future: the retail sales of gold and jewelry of retail enterprises above Designated Size in China 1h20 fell year-on-year due to the epidemic, and recovered to positive growth in the second half of 20 years; 1h21 achieved rapid growth under a low base, entered the second half of the year, the low base effect disappeared, and the growth rate continued to slow down month on month. The year-on-year growth rates of 1 ~ 4q21 were 76.09% / 31.44% / 12.62% / 4.95% respectively, maintaining a high single digit compound growth compared with the same period of 19 years, with compound growth rates of 8.99% / 7.80% / 9.96% / 9.07% respectively, achieving the highest growth after the "gold rush" in 13 years, Among them, the compound price of gold increased by 14.26% / 13.50% / 5.35% / 4.74% respectively in the same period of 19 years. From the above analysis, it can be seen that the growth of 1h21 gold jewelry mainly comes from the contribution and quantity of price, which has not yet recovered to the level before the epidemic. It is expected that there is still room for the recovery of subsequent wedding celebrations; 2h21 volume price contribution is half.
Company: the operation efficiency and profitability are improved, the multi-channel management ability is excellent, the pace of joining is accelerated and the growth space is opened. Focusing on customers and focusing on the strategic direction of "creating brand, scale, quality and digitization" at the beginning of the year, the company has made digital transformation, continuously improved product competitiveness, innovated marketing means, accelerated Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) integration, further improved overall operation efficiency and profitability, and formed an endogenous growth power; Accelerate franchise expansion, increase market share and realize extension growth.
Investment advice
Driven by internal and external driving forces, the operating performance of jewelry and women's bags of the company has increased significantly in the past 21 years. In the future, the company will accelerate joining, channel sinking, cater to the consumption upgrading trend of "Yueji" in low-level cities, and have sufficient development momentum. It is expected that the company's EPS will be 0.38/0.45/0.52 yuan in 21-23 years, corresponding to PE times, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The terminal consumption is weak, the expansion of franchise is less than expected, and the gold price fluctuates.
