\u3000\u3000 Tianshui Huatian Technology Co.Ltd(002185) (002185)
The performance of China’s sealed test leader met expectations and maintained the “buy” rating
On January 24, 2022, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be 1.32 billion yuan ~ 1.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 88.11% ~ + 113.76%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company from 1 billion yuan to 1.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 88.04% ~ + 118.12%. It is calculated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in the single quarter of 2021q4 is 292 million yuan ~ 472 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 14.51% ~ + 85.10% and a month-on-month increase of – 29.64% ~ + 13.73%; Deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company from 181 million yuan to 341 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 15.29% ~ + 117.20% and a month-on-month increase of – 46.92% ~ + 0%. The semiconductor downstream is highly prosperous. At present, the company has full orders, maintains a high capacity utilization rate, actively expands production and has sufficient growth momentum. We maintain the company’s profit forecast. It is estimated that the company will realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.487/19.55/2.271 billion and eps0.01 billion respectively from 2021 to 2023 46 / 0.61/0.71 yuan, and the current share price corresponds to pe26 2 / 19.9 / 17.1 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
The downstream is highly prosperous, the company’s capacity utilization remains high, and the growth momentum is sufficient
Affected by the domestic substitution of integrated circuits, the acceleration of 5g construction, the growth of consumer electronics and automotive electronics demand and other factors, the integrated circuit market demand continues to be strong. According to Gartner data, the overall sales of the semiconductor market increased by 25.1% to US $583.5 billion in 2021, exceeding US $500 billion for the first time. According to icinsights data, after a strong growth of 26% in 2021 and a jump of 13% in 2020, the global integrated circuit market is expected to grow by 11% to US $565.1 billion in 2022. TSMC disclosed at the legal presentation meeting on January 13, 2022 that the capital expenditure in 2022 reached US $40-44 billion, higher than the US $30 billion in 2021 and the US $38-42 billion capital expenditure predicted by the industry. The capital expenditure of the wafer factory is the leading indicator of the wafer production capacity. In the future, the wafer production capacity of the industry will be further improved, and the sealing and testing demand will continue to increase. Tianshui, Xi’an and Kunshan, the original three core plants of the company, have full capacity utilization. The capacity of the new plant in Nanjing is climbing smoothly, and the capacity will increase further in 2022. On September 10, 2021, the company was approved by the CSRC to raise 5.1 billion yuan, including 1.09 billion yuan for the expansion project of integrated circuit multi chip packaging, 1.03 billion yuan for the expansion project of high-density system level integrated circuit packaging and testing, and 900 million yuan for the industrialization project of TSV and FC integrated circuit packaging and testing 1.38 billion yuan is used for the storage and RF integrated circuit packaging and testing industrialization project, which is conducive to further improving the profitability of the company. At present, the company has full orders, the business scale will continue to expand and the growth momentum is sufficient.
Risk tip: the risk of declining industry demand, intensified industry competition and less than expected capacity expansion.
