\u3000\u3000 Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) (601919)
Event:
Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) issued the announcement of annual performance increase in 2021
The company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 89.28 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of about 799.3%, and an EBIT of 131.52 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 629.4%; In 2021q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 21.69 billion yuan in a single quarter, a month on month decrease of - 28.87%. During the reporting period, the company actively optimized its financial structure. By the end of 2021, the undistributed profit on the balance sheet of the parent company is expected to be about 27.78 billion yuan, laying a foundation for the smooth implementation of cash dividends in 2021.
Key investment points:
In 2021q4, the increase in ring price fell, and the company's profit fell
In terms of freight rate, CCFI / SCFI index rose 9.69% / 9.38% month on month in the fourth quarter of 2021. Among them, CCFI / SCFI on the US west line increased by 12.66% / 18.45% month on month; CCFI / SCFI on the US east line rose 8.99% / 1.72% month on month; The European line CCFI / SCFI rose 3.77% / 4.76% month on month, and the mainstream freight rate index showed an overall upward trend in the fourth quarter. We believe that under the background of the overall rise of freight rates, the main reasons for the decline of the company's profit in a single quarter are: ① affected by the shipping schedule delay caused by port congestion, the increase of blank flights of the company leads to the decline of container business volume. According to the data of sea intelligence, the average suspension frequency of liner companies on the US west line in the fourth quarter increased significantly from 7.7 times a week in the first three quarters to 13 times a week; In terms of the throughput of the west American port, the container throughput of Los Angeles port in 2021q4 was only 1456000 TEUs, down 14.24% month on month; ② In order to cope with the poor circulation of the supply chain and ensure the normal operation of the supply chain, the company's cost side increased higher than expected in the fourth quarter.
The operation of high freight rates still has the support of supply and demand. The signing of the European and American long-term association strengthens the certainty of performance. In the short term, the probability of supply chain will be naturally alleviated due to the off-season trade. However, limited by medium and long-term factors such as the epidemic and the lack of long-term government investment, the problem of insufficient logistics capacity of supply chain will occur repeatedly due to the arrival of peak season, The contraction of effective supply in the market may continue for a long time; In terms of demand, the import boom in Europe and the United States is still possible to continue driven by epidemic factors. From the basic data, the potential demand of major consumer countries is still abundant. From the perspective of the whole year, the freight rate is limited by effective supply, sufficient potential demand and supported by space at the top and bottom. The probability of maintaining high operation throughout the year is still high.
With the signing of the European and American long-term association, the performance certainty of the company in recent years will also be strengthened. Under neutral expectations, the European and American long term association will generate nearly 40 billion net profit attributable to the parent this year, so as to provide a higher performance basis for the company.
From a long-term perspective, the future development of the industry is still better than worry
At present, the industry has passed the key reshuffle period, and the industry CR10 / Cr5 has reached 82.8% / 65%. The position of the head liner company has become more and more stable, and the industry pattern has been basically settled. The alliance operation of liner companies has once again strengthened the market head effect. The three major shipping alliances occupy more than 80% of the global container shipping capacity and divide up the market share of the world's major route navigation areas. Driven by the optimization of the pattern, the demand for cooperation between liner companies is gradually stronger than the willingness to compete. With the continuous enhancement of industry coordination, the industry is expected to move towards a new era of mutually beneficial and win-win development. On the other hand, there are still hidden worries about surplus at the supply side, and the proportion of ship orders in hand in the industry in the current total transport capacity has rebounded significantly. However, the demands for future ship disassembly caused by ship aging and environmental protection pressure can not be ignored, and the actual delivery pressure of transport capacity in the future may be partially hedged.
Profit forecast and investment rating: it is estimated that the operating revenue of Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) from 2021 to 2023 will be 329.190 billion yuan, 388.129 billion yuan and 294.981 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 89.277 billion yuan, 112.298 billion yuan and 60.122 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 2.96, 2.12 and 3.96 respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk warning: risk of large-scale expansion of transport capacity; The risk of world economic recession; Risk of sharp rise in oil prices; Exchange rate fluctuation risk; Natural disaster risk; Industry boom uncertainty.
