\u3000\u3000 Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) (600426)
Event:
On January 24, 2022, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will reach 7 billion yuan to 7.5 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 5.202 billion yuan to 5.702 billion yuan compared with the same period of last year, with a year-on-year increase of 289.32% to 317.13%.
Key investment points:
The prosperity of main products has improved and the profit center has moved up
The company expects to realize a net profit of 7 billion yuan to 7.5 billion yuan attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2021, an increase of 5.202 billion yuan to 5.702 billion yuan compared with the same period of last year, with a year-on-year increase of 289.32% to 317.13%. It is estimated that in the fourth quarter of 2021, the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies ranging from 1.388 billion yuan to 1.888 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 173.23% to 271.65% and a month on month increase of – 23.34% to 4.25%. In 2021, the price of the company’s main products rose sharply, the price difference was at a high level, and the profitability of the company was significantly improved. According to wind data, the average price of urea is 2443 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 41.65%, and the average price difference is 1565 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 45.18%; The average price of DMF was 13111 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 111.09%, and the average price difference was 8442 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 154.40%; The average price of adipic acid was 10623 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 55.12%, and the average price difference was 2862 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 22.82%; The average price of acetic acid was 6533 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 148.23%, and the average price difference was 4541 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 208.20%; The average price of ethylene glycol was 5246 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 36.29%, and the average price difference was 3695 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 37.06%.
Accelerate the construction of new projects and become a new growth point of future performance
In August 2021, Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) (Jingzhou) Co., Ltd. syngas comprehensive utilization project / Park gas power platform project was officially started in Jiangling County, Jingzhou City, Hubei Province. In October 2021, the company’s amide and nylon new material project (300000 t / a) caprolactam and supporting devices have opened the process, produced qualified products and entered the trial production stage; The series of technical transformation projects for increasing production and improving quality of dimethyl carbonate have been put into operation, and the series of technical transformation for increasing production and improving quality of ethylene glycol production unit with an annual output of 500000 tons has been implemented, which has the ability to jointly produce 300000 tons / year of high-quality dimethyl carbonate. The seventh and tenth batch of projects of Dezhou development and Reform Commission were publicized, including the company’s Nylon 66 high-end new material project, 120000 T / a PBAT degradable plastic project and high-end solvent project. Relying on the clean coal gasification platform, the company further extends the industrial chain, enters high value-added products, and gives full play to the advantages of flexible cogeneration; At the same time, Jingzhou base is strategically planned to break through space constraints and expand the market advantages of main products. With the new project put into operation, it is expected to become a new growth point of the company’s performance.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company is a leading enterprise in coal chemical industry, with strong cost control ability. The smooth operation of new projects will improve the performance, and is optimistic about the long-term development of the company. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will be 7.376 billion yuan, 7.477 billion yuan and 8.035 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 8.86, 8.74 and 8.14 times of PE respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the risk of crop loss caused by natural disasters; The risk of repeated fermentation of the global epidemic affecting downstream demand; The supply of chemical fertilizer increased on a large scale; Safety and environmental protection risks; The risk that the project construction progress is less than expected; Risk of uncertain implementation progress of fixed increase.
