\u3000\u3000 Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) (600009)
Event: the company issued the announcement of pre loss of performance in 2021. In 2021, the company realized a net loss of 1.78 billion yuan to 1.64 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 370 million yuan to 510 million yuan; Among them, the net loss attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter of 2021 is about 530 million yuan - 390 million yuan, slightly narrowed compared with the same period in 2020 (loss of 530 million yuan), and it is still possible to reduce the loss compared with the third quarter of 2021 (loss of 510 million yuan).
The company's demand for China's air passenger transport has recovered, and the demand for freight remains growing. In 2021, the company took off and landed about 350000 aircraft, an increase of 7.32% over the same period of 20 years and a decrease of 31.7% over the same period of 19 years; The passenger throughput was about 32.21 million person times, an increase of 5.68% over the same period of 20 years and a decrease of 57.7% over the same period of 19 years. Among them, the passenger throughput of China, regions and international decreased by 18.9%, 97.5% and 86.0% respectively over the same period of 19 years; As international passenger flights are still under strict control and the demand for all cargo aircraft freight is still strong, the company has achieved an annual cargo and mail throughput of about 3.99 million tons in 2021, an increase of 8.1% over the same period of 20 years and 9.7% over the same period of 19 years.
Tax exempt business is at a low level. According to the revised duty-free operation agreement, the rental income of duty-free stores in the first three quarters of 2021 is about 92 million yuan, 129 million yuan and 149 million yuan respectively. Considering that the company's overseas passenger throughput in the fourth quarter of 2021 is less than that in the third quarter, it is reasonable to speculate that the rental income of duty-free stores in the fourth quarter of 2021 may not exceed that in the third quarter of 2021. Based on the above, the rental income of duty-free stores in 2021 may be significantly less than that in 2020 (RMB 1.156 billion).
Some costs are rigid, and the company's losses increase. Due to the repeated outbreaks outside China, the passenger throughput and the completion of aircraft take-off and landing sorties of Pudong Airport in 2021 are lower than expected at the beginning of the year. The business volume of international routes is still greatly affected. The business development and customer operation of the company are greatly affected by the continuous impact of the epidemic, and the operation continues to be under pressure. In the first three quarters of 2021, the company's operating revenue decreased by about 20.1% compared with the same period in 2020 and 66.5% compared with the same period in 2019. Due to the rigidity of the company's operating costs and fixed costs, plus the impact of epidemic prevention and control expenses and the entry of operating leases, the company's loss in 2021 increased significantly compared with that in 2020.
Asset injection will thicken the company's performance in the short term and lay the foundation for the company's development in the long term. If Hongqiao Airport and other assets are injected into the listed company, the operating revenue of the listed company in 2020 and January September 21 will increase by about 88% and 121% respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will increase by 5.8% and 19.8% respectively (after the increase, the loss will be 1.19 billion yuan and 1 billion yuan respectively). In the long run, if this asset injection is completed, it will help listed companies integrate the advantages of Hongqiao Airport and Pudong Airport, coordinate the two flight routes, improve the route quality, and achieve the goal of reaching more than 130 million air passenger throughput of the two major aviation hubs in Shanghai as soon as possible.
Investment suggestion: the profitability of the company cannot be restored under the influence of the epidemic, but the location advantage and competitive advantage of the company have not changed essentially due to the epidemic. With the continuous promotion of covid-19 vaccination / treatment, the recovery of aviation demand and the revaluation of the value of first-line airports are deterministic events. Considering that the covid-19 epidemic lasted longer than expected (excluding the impact of asset restructuring and capital injection by major shareholders temporarily), we reduced the company's EPS from 21 to 23 to -0.88 yuan, -0.51 yuan and 1.28 yuan respectively (formerly -0.60 yuan, 0.53 yuan and 2.04 yuan); Based on the location advantages of Pudong Airport, we believe that the company's competitive barriers remain, and we maintain the company's "overweight" rating.
Risk warning: the duration and scope of covid-19 pneumonia exceeded expectations; Macroeconomic downturn affects aviation demand; The hourly capacity of the airport increases slowly; The passenger throughput of overseas routes grew slowly.
