\u3000\u3000 Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) (300894)
Key investment points
Event: the company issued a performance pre increase announcement. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 370 ~ 430 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 34.5% ~ 56.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was 350-410 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 35.4% ~ 58.6%. According to the calculation, the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 of 2021 is RMB 100-160 million, with a year-on-year increase of about – 17% ~ 33% and a year-on-year increase of 8.3% based on the median value; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was RMB 100-160 million, with a year-on-year increase of about – 10.7% ~ 42.9%, and a year-on-year increase of 16.1% based on the median value.
Q4 profit growth slowed down under multiple influences. According to the median calculation, the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 increased by 8.3% year-on-year, and there was a slowdown month on month. We believe that the main reasons are: (1) affected by the rhythm of e-commerce’s confirmation of receipt, some double 11 and double 12 loans need to be confirmed in the first quarter of 2022. With the increase of the proportion of e-commerce, the impact of this part of revenue is magnified compared with the past; (2) Historically, the company’s high proportion of profits in the second half of the year led to a high base in the same period last year and a relatively slow growth; (3) Affected by the price rise of raw materials and the promotion activities in the fourth quarter, the profit growth slows down. We expect Q4 revenue growth to be faster than the profit growth.
Integrated stove leading enterprises, long-term development for the better. The integrated stove industry maintained a high boom. AVC data showed that the retail sales and retail volume of integrated stoves increased by 41% and 28% year-on-year respectively in 2021, and the industry dividend was gradually realized. As the industry leader, the company adheres to the brand concept of “kitchen electricity integration and open kitchen”, pays attention to product research and development, and launched nearly 50 new products in 2021; Adhere to the “two wheel drive” sales mode of online and offline channels, enable offline channels through online traffic, implement the new retail concept, and realize the integrated development of Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) . We believe that under the background of high upward certainty of integrated stove penetration, as a leading enterprise, the slowdown of short-term profit growth will not affect the long-term development of the company.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. As a leading enterprise of integrated stoves, the company will fully enjoy the dividends of the expansion of clean electrical appliances industry by virtue of brand advantages and R & D advantages. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 1 / 1.37/1.82 yuan respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials may fluctuate sharply, the sales of new products are less than expected, and the industry competition intensifies
