\u3000\u3000 Pci Technology Group Co.Ltd(600728) (600728)
The company released the annual performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be 300 million yuan ~ 360 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 226.71% ~ 292.05%. It is estimated that the net profit deducted from non parent company is 274 million yuan ~ 334 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 251.64% ~ 328.64%.
Key investment points:
Orders have entered the stage of large-scale implementation, and the sales revenue of self-developed products has increased rapidly: 1) the company's newly signed and on-hand intelligent orders have entered the stage of large-scale implementation in recent three years. The delivery of intelligent projects such as rail transit and smart city as planned has driven the rapid growth of business revenue. 2) The company's artificial intelligence technology continued to be invested and transformed, and the sales of self-developed intelligent products with high gross profit rates such as "smart station" and "IDPs urban traffic brain" increased rapidly, driving the improvement of the company's overall gross profit rate.
The number of remote replication cases is increasing, and the intelligent rail transit leader in Dawan district is moving towards the whole country: according to the bidding information disclosed by caizhao.com, recently, the company successively won the bid for the information system related projects of multiple lines of Chengdu rail transit. Last December, the company's intelligent urban rail solution was unveiled in Changsha Metro Line 6, once again demonstrating the company's technical strength. At present, the company has accumulated rich implementation cases in many cities across the country, and is expected to further replicate on a large scale across the country.
Actively explore cutting-edge technologies and lay out digital Twin Cities: the 14th five year plan for the development of digital economy proposes to "improve the urban information model platform and operation management service platform, and build a digital twin city according to local conditions". As early as 2019, the company has put forward the concept of "data intelligence, twin city". In recent years, the cumulative R & D expenditure on relevant technologies has exceeded 1 billion yuan, and has obtained hundreds of patents and software intellectual property rights in key technologies and applications such as digital twin. At present, the company has gradually applied digital twinning and intelligent simulation technology in products such as "IDPs urban traffic brain" and "Huajia MOS smart subway platform", so as to lay a foundation for the future of building a "twin city".
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: we believe that the rapid growth of the company's self-developed product sales shows the full recognition of the market. In the future, the company's revenue structure is expected to continue to improve, and the increase in the proportion of self-developed products with high gross profit will drive the improvement of the company's profitability. The company's performance exceeded expectations, and we raised our profit forecast. It is estimated that the operating income of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 6.305/82.07/10.435 billion, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 317/480/654 million respectively. The closing price of PE on January 24 will be RMB 8.94, 49.52x/32.78x/24.05x respectively, which will be raised to the "buy" rating.
Risk factors: under the repeated epidemic situation, the project construction progress is less than expected, the production process is less than expected, and the investment in new infrastructure is less than expected.
