\u3000\u3000 Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) (300122)
Key investment points
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 2021, and it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 9.9 billion yuan ~ 10.56 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 200% ~ 220%. The net profit deducted from non parent company was 9.97 billion yuan to 10.63 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 200% ~ 220%, and the performance was in line with market expectations.
Covid-19 vaccine contributed to the main performance increment, and the export demand is still strong. In terms of quarters, in Q4 alone, the company is expected to realize a net profit of 1.5 billion yuan to 2.16 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 82% ~ 162%, mainly due to the continuous high volume of covid-19 vaccine and the recovery and growth of traditional HPV vaccine. Throughout the year, according to the export data of human vaccine in Anhui Province and the prediction of the company's production capacity, the company's covid-19 vaccine is expected to contribute 5.7 ~ 6 billion yuan to the parent's net profit, and the traditional business contributes about 4.3 ~ 4.6 billion yuan, of which the sales volume of HPV vaccine is expected to be about 15 million, which is in line with the expectation. At present, the PQ certification of covid-19 vaccine by who is progressing smoothly, and it is expected to continue to contribute to the overseas incremental market after it is approved.
Freeze dried rabies vaccine for human use has excellent data and is expected to contribute to incremental income. The company has excellent phase III clinical data of human diploid crazy vaccine, which shows that it has good immunogenicity and safety. The above two aspects are not inferior to the control vaccine. At present, only Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) human diploid crazy seedlings are on sale in the market. The product competition pattern is excellent, and the company's capacity design is sufficient. It is expected that after listing, as the gold standard product among crazy seedlings, it is expected to seize the share of crazy seedlings in the traditional route and contribute to the performance increment.
The market space of self-produced and agent varieties is huge, and the market expectation is poor. 1) Triple vaccine and tuberculosis control product lines are heavy products with a profit of 1 billion. Tuberculosis prevention product line: for the world's first, the market for TB control is huge, and the Mycobacterium vaccine +EC is expected to become a heavy breed, with a net profit of 1 billion 500 million yuan in 2025. AC Hib triple vaccine: its adjuvant free dosage form will be approved soon, and the net profit may reach 1 billion yuan in 2025;
2) in the short term, agent varieties such as HPV and pentavalent rotavirus vaccine will drive the company's performance outbreak. The company's sales capacity is the strongest among Chinese vaccine enterprises, covering the widest network of vaccination sites. At present, the penetration rate of HPV vaccine in China is still low, and the listing of domestic HPV has little impact on the company in the short term. It is expected that the supply of agent HPV will still be in short supply in the next three years; Pentavalent rotavirus vaccine: at present, it is in rapid volume, and the profit peak may reach 500 million yuan in 2023.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. Regardless of the sales increment of covid-19 vaccine, we predict that the net profit attributable to the parent in 2021-2023 will be 4.5 billion yuan, 6 billion yuan and 7.4 billion yuan respectively, and the CAGR of the net profit attributable to the parent in the next three years will be 31%, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: covid-19 vaccine volume is less than expected, the risk of research and development failure and the risk of product price reduction.
