\u3000\u3000 Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) (300181)
Recommendation logic: 1) Wuling capsule has been growing steadily as a core product. In 2020, Wuling capsule has been added to several guidelines such as New Coronavirus pneumonia stress and psychosomatic health assistance manual, and is expected to become the 1 billion largest variety. 2) In 2020, the company's revenue of traditional Chinese medicine formula granules has exceeded 30 million yuan. The company entered the traditional Chinese medicine formula granule industry earlier, with a relatively large number of varieties and high product quality. The traditional Chinese medicine formula granule is expected to become a new growth point of the company; 3) Equity participation in Keji biology is expected to contribute to investment income in the future.
The leading enterprise of Wuling capsule has entered a new stage of accelerated growth. From 2011 to 2014, the company's revenue side has maintained rapid growth. Since 2015, due to the adjustment of sales of main products and the impairment of goodwill of subsidiaries, the company's profit has continued to decline. After several years of adjustment, the company's revenue and profit began to recover from 2019 and ushered in high growth from 2021.
The growth space of main products is large, and traditional Chinese medicine formula particles are expected to become a new growth point. The company's main products include Wuling series, bailing tablets, traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces, traditional Chinese medicine formula granules and other products. Wuling capsule has been growing steadily as a core product. In 2020, Wuling capsule added several guidelines to the New Coronavirus pneumonia epidemic stress psychosomatic health assistance manual, which is expected to become the 1 billion largest variety. Bailing film is a variety acquired by the company, with a good market competition pattern and high R & D and production barriers, which has maintained rapid growth. On the whole, the company's core products were mainly promoted at the hospital end in the early stage. At present, the company gradually increases the promotion at the retail end, and is expected to maintain rapid growth in the future. Since 2017, the company has entered the traditional Chinese medicine formula granule industry and become one of the four pilot enterprises in Zhejiang Province. In 2020, the company's traditional Chinese medicine formula granule revenue has exceeded 30 million yuan. The company entered the traditional Chinese medicine formula granule industry earlier, with a relatively large number of varieties and high product quality. It is expected to seize the industry opportunity, and the traditional Chinese medicine formula granule is expected to become a new growth point of the company.
Equity participation in Keji biology is expected to contribute to investment income in the future. Keji biology is a clinical biomedical company established in Shanghai in 2014. Its legal representative is Dr. Li Zonghai. In 2021, Keji biology landed in Hong Kong stocks. At present, the car-t product ct053 for the treatment of multiple myeloma targeting BCMA is the product with the fastest progress in the research and development of Keji biology. At present, it is in the key II / III clinical stage, followed by claudin18 The progress of car-t product ct041 of 2 is also relatively fast. It is expected that with the gradual listing of products, it is expected to contribute some investment income to the company in the future.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is expected that the compound growth rate of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 is expected to reach 52.8%. The company is the leader of China's Wuling industry. The main products Wuling capsule and bailing tablet are expected to continue to maintain rapid growth with the increase of sales. At the same time, the company's traditional Chinese medicine formula granule business is expected to become a new growth point, the performance has entered the stage of accelerated growth, and the long-term development is worth looking forward to.
Risk tips: product price reduction risk, R & D risk less than expected, and other policy risks in the pharmaceutical industry.
