\u3000\u3000 Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) (300841)
Key investment points
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 2021, and it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 808 million ~ 840 million, with a year-on-year increase of 98% ~ 106%. Excluding the company's investment income of 270 million yuan in 2021, it is expected to realize a net profit of 538 million yuan to 570 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 33.5% ~ 41.5%, and the performance slightly exceeded the market expectation.
The production capacity of human diploid wild seedlings was released, driving the increase of sales. Quarterly, the company is expected to realize a net profit of RMB 195 million to RMB 227 million in Q4, with a year-on-year increase of 225% ~ 278%. The rapid growth of Q4 performance is mainly due to the gradual release of 2 million new production capacity in the second workshop of human diploid crazy seedlings of the company. The demand for diploid crazy seedlings is still strong and the sales volume increases rapidly. Throughout the year, the company is expected to sell 5 million human diploid wild seedlings, and the price of a single needle is about 285 yuan. The increase in volume and price drives the rapid growth of the company's performance.
The capacity expansion of Chinese exclusive diploid crazy seedlings can be expected. Human diploid cell rabies vaccine has better safety and higher immunogenicity. With the upgrading of demand, there is more room for growth in the future. The company's human diploid rabies vaccine went on sale in 2014 and is still exclusive in China. As the first production enterprise in China, the company has mature production technology and stable product quality. It has the first mover advantage of products and sales. It has covered about 1500 centers for Disease Control and prevention in China. The company's raised and invested production capacity is expected to be put into operation from 2023 to 2024, increasing from 5 million units / year to 11 million units / year, doubling the production capacity, and the revenue is expected to increase simultaneously. At the same time, it is expected that the sales expense rate will gradually decrease and the profit quality will be steadily improved.
Pet vaccine brings new growth points to the company. At present, the pet vaccine products cooperated by the company and Hangzhou Youben have been submitted for approval and issued. It is expected that 2022 can be put on the market as a complete sales year. At present, more than 2000 pet hospitals across the country have signed up to book the company's veterinary vaccine products. At present, the number of pets in China is about 100 million, which is expected to increase by 7%. At present, the Chinese market is still dominated by vaccines from overseas manufacturers. The company is expected to quickly expand its market share by virtue of product quality and cost performance.
The R & D pipeline focuses on multivalent vaccines, with outstanding innovation attributes. So far, the company has 10 projects under research. It has a forward-looking vision in vaccine research and development, focuses on solving the unmet needs of China's current vaccine industry, improves the company's R & D capacity through multi technology platforms such as recombinant protein platform and investment in mRNA technology, and arranges multivalent vaccines, such as hexavalent norovirus vaccine, tetravalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine and tetravalent nasal spray influenza vaccine, which are expected to contribute new increments of performance to the company in the future.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. The release of the company's human diploid capacity has led to a rapid increase in sales, so we raised the company's profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 810 million yuan, 890 million yuan and 1.25 billion yuan respectively, and the CAGR of the net profit attributable to the parent company in the next three years will be 45%, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the pace of new production capacity of human diploid cell rabies vaccine is not as expected; The company's inventory is insufficient to meet the seasonal fluctuation risk of sales; Risk of single product structure
