\u3000\u3000 China Reform Health Management And Services Group Co.Ltd(000503) (000503)
Core view
Digital medical insurance is the body, and digital medical treatment and digital medicine are the two wings. The company has formulated a strategic plan with "one body, two wings, two wheel drive, digital empowerment and healthy ecology" as the core content. Taking digital medical insurance as the body and digital medical and digital medicine as the two wings, the company has built a basic disk, created a closed loop of digital + medical + insurance + medicine, and is committed to becoming a leader of digital medical insurance, a builder of digital medicine and digital medical, and an innovator of Internet health security services, Become a first-class medical and health security service company. In 2021h1, the company's digital medical insurance, digital medicine and digital medical business revenue accounted for 66.2%, 19.24% and 14.39% respectively.
DRG and dip accelerate national coverage, and the incremental market is considerable. The reform of medical insurance payment mode was accelerated, from pilot to nationwide. In November 2021, the National Medical Security Bureau issued the notice on printing and distributing the three-year action plan for DRG / Dip payment reform, accelerated the full coverage of DRG / Dip payment reform, and comprehensively accelerated the reform of DRG / Dip payment. According to the estimation of procurement network data, the unit price of DRG / dip information system project at the secondary hospital end is about 800000 yuan, that at the tertiary hospital end is about 1.5 million yuan, that at the medical insurance bureau end is about 4 million yuan, and that at the health commission end is about 3 million yuan. Based on the three-year construction period of 22-24 years, the incremental market scale brought by DRG / Dip construction will exceed 10 billion yuan.
The leader in the reform of medical insurance end payment mode, and the income growth can be expected. China Reform Health Management And Services Group Co.Ltd(000503) as a leading digital medical insurance company controlled by central enterprises, its traditional medical insurance fund supervision business, such as medical insurance fund intelligent audit service, has a leading market share. Meanwhile, in recent years, the company has been actively engaged in research and development and layout DRG / Dip medical insurance payment innovation business. In the "13th five year plan" pilot stage, the company's DRG business market share remained ahead and was also rapidly expanding the dip market. DRG / Dip construction involves the medical insurance bureau, the health commission and the hospital. The company has obvious advantages in the medical insurance side, which can help the hospital side adapt to the reform path more quickly. Taking the medical insurance bureau as the starting point, it is expected to help the company accelerate its entry into the hospital side business. At the same time, medical institutions will be more inclined to use lean performance evaluation to drive cost control and high-quality development, and DRG / Dip will promote extensive and in-depth development to refinement. The company takes the lead in this field. It is expected that the three-year peak construction period of DRG / Dip will bring significant incremental revenue to the company.
Service and innovative business are the long-term focus. DRG and dip follow-up service fees are expected to bring sustainable income to the company. After the completion of DRG and dip projects, relevant needs, including dynamic adjustment of data and optimization of payment methods, will continue to arise. Under the "construction + operation" mode, the company will still receive the later operation and maintenance and other related service fees for a long time to provide sustainable operation and maintenance services. In addition, commercial insurance direct compensation + PBM + chronic disease management service is an innovative service model that can be explored in the future. The company's commercial insurance business continued to develop, and phased progress was made in direct compensation and quick compensation. The modes of medical insurance are different outside China. At present, the combination mode of medical insurance and commercial insurance is not clear. The company continues to make layout in the field of commercial insurance business, is committed to opening up the channels of medical insurance and commercial insurance, has medical big data-driven commercial insurance health insurance services and medical insurance fee control services, and coordinates and promotes the communication among patients, doctors, pharmacists and payers. Under the possible business opportunities such as the combination of medical insurance and commercial insurance in the future, the company has excellent channel ability and business ability.
Investment suggestion: with the promotion of the policy, the reform of DRG / Dip payment mode will be accelerated to the whole country. The estimated market space in the next three years will exceed 10 billion. The company will increase business expansion and improve the value of value-added services at the hospital and enterprise ends. We expect the company's revenue to be 256 million yuan, 446 million yuan and 594 million yuan respectively in 21-23 years, with a year-on-year growth rate of 23.2%, 74.5% and 33.1%, The net profit attributable to the parent company was -185 million yuan, 24 million yuan and 46 million yuan respectively. Give the company a 22-year target market value of 169 6.9 billion yuan, corresponding to the target price of 18.71 yuan. It is covered for the first time and given a "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the policy effect is not as expected; The market expansion was not as expected.
