\u3000\u3000 Pansoft Company Limitid(300996) (300996)
Event: on January 24, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is expected that the company will realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 126-140 million yuan in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 51.10% - 67.89%; The non net profit deducted was RMB 114-128 million, with a year-on-year increase of 43.96% - 61.64%.
Comments:
The performance exceeded expectations and the order performance was verified. The median net profit forecast in 2021 was 133 million, which exceeded our expectation of 126 million, and the performance exceeded our expectation. Mainly because the company adheres to the development strategy of "focusing on strategic customers and advantageous business", the business of petroleum and petrochemical industry has achieved rapid growth, the business of construction industry has expanded from financial field to business field, achieved rapid growth, and other advantageous businesses have continued to grow. In view of the repeated epidemic situation in 2021q4, some orders may be delayed to 2022h1 for confirmation. With the acceleration of the digital transformation of central enterprises, the order growth trend is expected to be good in the medium term.
The demand of central enterprises in the lower reaches is strong, and the vanguard role of digital economy appears. According to the news of China Central Television, in 2021, central enterprises realized an operating revenue of 36.3 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 19.5%; the total profit was 2.4 trillion yuan and the net profit was 1.8 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 30.3% and 29.8% respectively. The revenue and net profit of central enterprises reached the best level in history, indicating that state-owned enterprises and central enterprises have the power and ability to realize digital transformation. Focusing on the "1 + 4" core customers of central enterprises, Pulian has continuously expanded the boundary of business capabilities, empowered the digital transformation of central enterprises and strived to be the leader of the digital economy.
The view reiterated: the company is a small and beautiful growth target, and the growth factors at the current stage are more instructive. (1) The certainty of improving the prosperity of the industry. In the future, the growth rate of petroleum and petrochemical energy informatization industry can reach more than 10%, while the growth rate of construction real estate informatization can reach more than 50%, which provides medium-term guidance for the growth of the company. (2) Confirmation of orders and contracts. The company's strategy is to focus on high-quality large-scale central enterprises and state-owned enterprise groups, focus on the group management software business, and then continuously penetrate and expand to the surrounding information systems. From the procurement bidding website, the company's order growth is good, while the half year and the fourth quarter are the quarters with more revenue, and the revenue target of equity incentive is more to ensure the growth target. (3) The growth of customized software industry. The revenue generated by customized software is positively related to the input and output of implementation personnel. The company is continuously investing personnel. It is expected that the number of people will continue to grow by more than 20% in the next 2-3 years, and the per capita output will remain more than 300000 / year. Moreover, the platform support department of the headquarters is developing big data platform and cloud service, and the cloud service business has had good customer expansion, Technological innovation and technological reserves can keep up in the late stage of digital transformation and form a second pole of high-quality growth.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we estimate that the net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 135 / 191 / 268 million respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be 0.96/1.38/1.95 yuan respectively. Optimistic about the improvement of downstream industry prosperity brought by the digital transformation of state-owned enterprises, and the application diffusion of standard software products such as XBRL, cloud platform and RPA. From the medium and long-term perspective of more than three years, the company will slowly enter the stage of software maturity. On the basis of expanding new large customers, the software is expected to transform to platform general-purpose software and cloud. Based on the performance exceeding expectations in 2021, the medium-term market value of the company was raised to 7-8 billion. Maintain a "strongly recommended" rating.
Risk tip: customer digital transformation is less than expected, personnel recruitment and investment are less than expected, and the pace of technological innovation slows down.
