Industry trend: this week, the public utilities and environmental protection index fell 0.68%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%. Among them, the water treatment sector in the environmental protection sector fell by 5.1%; Among the utilities sector, thermal power and hydropower rose by 1.29% and 1.61% respectively, while the gas sector fell significantly, down 4.65%.
Key points of this week:
1) public utilities perspective:
Establish a linkage mechanism between green power trading and renewable energy consumption responsibility weight: Recently, seven departments including the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of housing and urban rural development jointly issued the implementation plan for promoting green consumption, which clearly proposed to release the potential of green power consumption, and new energy power generation is expected to usher in new development opportunities, It focuses on implementing the requirements that new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption should not be included in the total energy consumption control, comprehensively promoting green power trading and green certificate trading, establishing a linkage mechanism between green power trading and renewable energy consumption responsibility weight, and market-oriented users complete the renewable energy consumption responsibility weight by purchasing green power or green certificate. At the same time, the plan proposes to strengthen the rigid constraints on the use of green power by high energy consuming enterprises, and all localities can formulate the minimum proportion of green power in the power consumption of high energy consuming enterprises according to the actual situation. The minimum weight of green power consumption in high energy consuming industries is expected to be established to further promote the increase of green power transaction demand.
In 2021, the power consumption increased steadily, and the installed capacity of wind power photovoltaic exceeded 300 million KW: according to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the power consumption of the whole society reached 8.31 trillion kwh in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%. At the same time, according to the energy production in 2021 released by the international energy administration, China's power generation fell by 2.1% year-on-year in December, mainly due to the high base of power generation and consumption in December 2020 and the impact of the warm winter in 2021, the power consumption of the downstream tertiary industry and residents was affected to a certain extent, and the overall power generation fell slightly in December. Among the power generation, thermal power and hydropower decreased by 4.9% and 6.8% year-on-year respectively. The wind power and photovoltaic power generation increased significantly. The wind power and photovoltaic power generation in December increased by 30.1% and 18.8% year-on-year respectively. From the perspective of installed capacity, the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic increased significantly in 2021. According to the data released by the national energy administration, as of November 14, 2021, the installed capacity of wind power grid connection in China was 300 million KW, accounting for 13% of the total installed capacity of power supply in China. The installed capacity of photovoltaic grid connection reached 306 million KW by the end of 2021. The proportion of wind power and photovoltaic installed capacity and power generation continued to increase, and the transformation of power structure was steadily promoted. The power sector recommends nuclear power + new energy two wheel drive, and the two business sectors have room for both volume and price increases [ China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) ]. As well as the target [ China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) ] [ Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) (a + H)] [ Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) ] [ Cecep Wind-Power Corporation(601016) ] with high construction in progress and large proportion of offshore wind power projects under construction, short-term performance growth and certainty.
2) viewpoint of environmental protection:
Sewage management continued to advance in an orderly manner, and the country's first measures for the management of sewage outlets into the sea were promulgated. In order to implement the spirit of establishing and improving the value realization mechanism of ecological products in the national 14th five year plan, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development recently issued the code for design of sewage treatment and reuse in chemical industry (Draft for comments on partially revised provisions), and Guangdong, Hebei and other places also issued planning policies related to sewage management such as sewage treatment and emission trading. Among them, the measures for the management of Yantai sea outfall issued by Yantai municipal government of Shandong Province is the first measures for the management of Yantai sea outfall in China, which strengthens the definition of supervision rights and responsibilities of Yantai sea outfall and formulates relevant standards. Generally speaking, the national sewage management is continuously and orderly promoted. It is recommended that leading enterprises [ Qingdao Guolin Environmental Technology Co.Ltd(300786) ] of ozone generator widely used in municipal water treatment and industrial sewage treatment should be recommended. At the same time, it is suggested to focus on civil centrifugal pump faucet [ Guangdong Lingxiao Pump Industry Co.Ltd(002884) ]. The development layout of "waste free city" has stepped into the fast lane. Under the framework of the first plan for the construction of "waste free cities" during the 14th Five Year Plan period, following Sanya, Jiangsu recently issued the work plan for the construction of "waste free cities" in Jiangsu Province, which proposed to complete the construction task of "waste free cities" in Jiangsu Province and build more than four districts into national "waste free cities" by 2025; By 2030, all cities divided into districts will meet the national requirements for the construction of "waste free cities", and the total storage and disposal of bulk industrial solid waste will increase to zero. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the construction and development layout of "waste free city" will enter the fast lane. It is suggested to focus on the leader of hazardous waste recycling [ Beijing Geoenviron Engineering & Technology Inc(603588) ] and the benchmark of solid waste treatment and recycling, and enter the new energy lithium battery recycling to open the performance growth space [ Wangneng Environment Co.Ltd(002034) ].
Market information tracking:
1) carbon market tracking: the total trading volume of the national carbon market carbon emission quota (CEA) this week was 53800 tons, with the highest transaction price of 58.50 yuan / ton and the lowest transaction price of 52.20 yuan / ton. The closing price on Friday was 57.46 yuan / ton, down 0.54% from last Friday. There is no block deal this week. As of this week, the cumulative trading volume of the national carbon market carbon emission quota (CEA) was 186.7 million tons, with a cumulative turnover of 8.072 billion yuan. The highest trading volume of carbon emission rights in Guangdong this week was 189900 tons, while there was no trading volume in Beijing this week. In terms of the average transaction price of carbon emissions, the highest average transaction price in Guangdong market is 63.32 yuan / ton, and the lowest transaction price in Fujian is 12.17 yuan / ton.
2) natural gas price tracking: the weekly average price of LNG ex factory transactions across the country was 4895.51 yuan / ton, down 93.50 yuan / ton month on month, down 1.87%; Among them, the weekly average ex factory price of the terminal was 5091.38 yuan / ton, down 48.00 yuan / ton month on month, down 0.93%; The average weekly ex factory price of the factory was 4707.43 yuan / ton, down 131.04 yuan / ton, or 2.71%.
3) coal market price tracking: coal prices continued to rise this week: cci5500 comprehensive price index this week was 791 yuan / ton. From the point of origin, Yulin 5800 kcal index this week was 927 yuan, up 65 yuan on a weekly basis; Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) 5500 kcal index was 789 yuan, up 57 yuan on a weekly basis; Datong 5500 kcal index was 804 yuan, up 34 yuan on a weekly basis.
Portfolio [ China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) ] + [ China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) ] + [ Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) ] + [ Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) ] + [ Cecep Wind-Power Corporation(601016) ] + [ Qingdao Guolin Environmental Technology Co.Ltd(300786) ] + [ Wangneng Environment Co.Ltd(002034) ]
Risk tip: the policy promotion is less than expected, the project operation progress is less than expected, the power coal price rises, the water supply of hydropower is less than expected, and the electricity price is at risk of reduction.
