Zhou’s point of view: the interest rate cut falls on the ground and looks at many securities companies. There are opportunities for value and growth
The interest rate cut is beneficial to the landing. The securities business sector is in the double boom stage of macro and industrial policies. The market style tends to switch to value stocks. The fundamentals and trading margins of the securities business sector are better, and continue to be optimistic about the opportunities of the sector; Under the influence of style switching and short-term precooling of new development funds, the performance of securities companies with undervalued values within the sector in the past month is relatively dominant. Looking forward to the future, we believe that there are opportunities for the two main lines of undervalued head securities companies (partial value) and big wealth management track (partial growth), and the phased allocation needs to be more balanced; The improvement of risk appetite, the emergence of profit growth or the revision of the profit and valuation of the subject matter of big wealth management. Continue to recommend Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) with large market expectation difference.
Securities companies: in the third week of January, the new development fund improved month on month, and the fundamentals and trading margins of securities companies were better
(1) as of January 21, 30 new equity + mixed funds were established in the third week of January, with a scale of 33.1 billion, an improvement over the total of 31 / 24.3 billion in the previous two weeks, and the average scale of a single fund rose to 1.1 billion this week; We expect that the scale of the newly established stock + mixed fund in January is about 100 billion, which is generally the same as the monthly average level in the fourth quarter, slightly lower than the previous expectation. However, the short-term fluctuation of the fund has little impact on the annual ownership, which should be viewed objectively. (2) In the past two weeks, some listed securities companies have disclosed the performance express and forecast of 2021, which is in line with our expectations as a whole. The roe of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) / China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) / Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) 2021 is 12.01% / 11.49% / 11.04% respectively, and the net profit is + 54.2% / + 22.4% / + 35.0% respectively. The increase in the proportion of fee based revenue and the increase in the leverage ratio of capital based business drive the industry’s roe to continue to rise. (3) This week’s interest rate cut fell to the ground, and the macro environment from wide liquidity to wide credit is good for securities companies. The securities company sector is in the double boom stage of macro and industrial policies. The market style has the trend of switching to value stocks. The fundamentals and trading aspects of the securities company sector are good, continue to be optimistic about the opportunities of the sector, and there are opportunities in the two main lines of value and growth. Recommend China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) and Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , and benefit from Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares), China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) and China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) .
Insurance: the sector is defensive and pays attention to the improvement trend of credit
(1) in December, the year-on-year decline of life insurance premiums converged, China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) , Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) year-on-year decline narrowed, The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) and China Taiping slowed down year-on-year growth due to the slowdown of single payment business and bancassurance business respectively, China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) are expected to increase by 36.6pct and 16.1pct year-on-year in December compared with November driven by the continued sprint of 2021 premiums and the launch of large-scale products. (2) The premium data for the whole year of 2021 have been disclosed. Considering the impact of life insurance transformation and health insurance by the release of demand, the impact of Pratt & Whitney products and the decline of agent scale, we expect the value rate of new business in 2021 to be lower than previously expected, or equal to the mid-term report of 2021, dragging down the value performance of new business in 2021. We expect a good start in January, with weak premium growth and no improvement on the liability side. At present, the valuation and expectation of the insurance sector are at a historical low, which has the attribute of defense. The subsequent wide credit effect appears or drives the valuation repair of the sector. It is recommended that China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) and Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) with leading transformation and outstanding comprehensive competitive advantage benefit the target AIA.
Combination of beneficial objects
Securities companies: China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares), China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) ,
\u3000\u3000 China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) ， Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) ；
Insurance: China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , AIA;
Diversified Finance: Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) .
Risk warning: stock market fluctuations have an uncertain impact on the profits of securities companies and insurance companies; The growth of insurance liabilities is less than expected; The profit growth of wealth management and asset management of securities companies was lower than expected.
