Commodity repair hot metal market, and the force of monetary policy is obvious
Steel prices have been stable this week, but benefiting from the improvement of macro expectations brought by the steady growth of the government, the main contract of rebar has risen continuously and is now nearly flat. The central economic work conference at the end of 2021 re emphasized “taking economic construction as the center”, and the intention of stabilizing growth is very obvious. Although the direction is very clear, under the constraints of non speculation in housing and housing and invisible government debt, the market has great differences on the strength and direction of policy stimulus, and there was a large correction in the early stage of steady growth. Recently, the central bank stated that it would “open the monetary policy toolbox wider and maintain the stability of the total amount”, and stressed “sufficient force”, “accurate force” and “forward force”, and then lowered the LPR quotation interest rate, and the positive monetary policy was fulfilled on schedule. We believe that the steady growth policy is expected to continue to increase in the future. It is only a matter of time before it is gradually transmitted from the current wide currency to wide credit, and the recovery of credit will drive the repair of commodity demand, which is also the core reason why we are optimistic about the rise of the sector. From the industry level, due to the continuous rise of raw material prices, the profits of steel enterprises have narrowed rapidly, and the latest ton profit of hot rolled and deformed steel is only about 300 yuan. The rise of steel stocks is more due to the improvement of valuation brought by the expectation of steady growth. In terms of investment opportunities in subdivided sectors, we focus on the areas where there is no supply relaxation, such as the water pipe industry. The main benefit targets are Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) , and the benefit targets of raw material price rise under the recovery of hot metal production, such as Hbis Resources Co.Ltd(000923) , Inner Mongolia Dazhong Mining Co.Ltd(001203) .
The ore price has gradually strengthened, and the coke price is expected to operate stably
(1) iron ore: the iron ore inventory in port 45 this week was 154358100 tons, down 2.6138 million tons month on month; The global shipment of iron ore was 28.792 million tons, up 1.838 million tons on a weekly basis. Among them, the delivery volume of iron ore in Australia was 15.884 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 712000 tons; Brazilian iron ore shipments were 4.701 million tons, up 139000 tons on a weekly basis. At the same time, the molten iron output of 247 steel plants this week reached 2182000 tons, up 45100 tons on a weekly basis. Affected by the replenishment of downstream steel mills before the festival, the inventory of iron ore ports decreased significantly month on month this week, and the average daily port clearance increased, which promoted the slight rise of ore price, and the overall ore price maintained a slight rise. Under the influence of steady growth and correction, the hot metal output of steel enterprises is expected to continue to rise in the future, and the ore price is easy to rise but difficult to fall; (2) Coke: the fourth round of rising this week failed. Although the downstream purchase intention is still positive and the coke inventory is still low, the resistance intention of steel mills increases after continuous rising, and the short-term stable operation is expected.
Plate key data tracking
Weak demand: this week (1.17-1.21), the average trading volume of construction steel in China was 56400 tons, with a decrease of 62800 tons on a weekly basis. According to the calculation of Mysteel data, the apparent consumption of deformed steel bars was 2.182 million tons, with a decrease of 466000 tons on a weekly basis; The apparent consumption of hot rolled sector and coil was 3.226 million tons, with a weekly increase of 70000 tons;
Overall decline in supply: the operating rate of blast furnaces in China (247) was 76.25%, with a rise of 0.48 PCT on a weekly basis; The capacity utilization rate of Tangshan steel plant was 71.84%, and the week on month ratio increased by 1.22pct. The national weekly output of the five varieties was 9.104 million tons, down 245800 tons month on month;
Profit continued to decline: this week (1.17-1.21), the gross profit per ton of rebar was 266 yuan, down 50 yuan month on month; The gross profit per ton of hot-rolled sector was 293 yuan, down 22 yuan month on month; The gross profit per ton of cold rolled sheet was 79 yuan, down 75 yuan month on month; The gross profit per ton of medium and heavy sector was 118 yuan, down 22 yuan month on month.
Risk tip: terminal demand has fallen sharply, and the environmental protection production restriction policy is less than expected.
