Weekly observation: in 2021, the industry's pig breeding capacity showed an overall recovery, and a new round of capacity deregulation was halfway through
On January 17, 2022, the National Bureau of statistics released China's economic annual report 2021. Focusing on the pig breeding industry, the annual output of pig, cattle, sheep and poultry meat in 2021 was 88.87 million tons, an increase of 16.3% over 2021; Among them, the output of pork was 52.96 million tons, an increase of 28.8%. In terms of production capacity, at the end of 2021, the number of live pigs and fertile sows in China was 449.22 million and 43.29 million respectively, an increase of 10.5% and 4.0% respectively over the end of 2020. The trend of industry capacity deregulation has not changed, and a new round of capacity deregulation is halfway through. There is a difference between the National Bureau of statistics and the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas. It is expected that the number of samples monitored by the Ministry of agriculture of the industry in December will still maintain a downward trend, and we expect the range of capacity removal in December to be in the range of 0.0% - 0.5%. By the middle of January, the average sales price of pigs in the industry has fallen below the industry cost line. It is expected that the price of pigs will further decline after the year, and the inferior production capacity will continue to be de converted at this stage. We expect that this round of industry capacity will be more than 15% higher than the high level from May to June 2021, supporting the price reversal of the new round of pig cycle.
Zhou's view: the pig cycle reversal is imminent, and the transgenic breeding policy is implemented
In 2022, the pig cycle is about to reverse, and the layout of production capacity is in the period of de industrialization. Focus on Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) with leading breeding cost; The recovery of production indicators is accelerated, and the cost is reduced by Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) ; Cycle reversal drives Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) with excellent performance elasticity; Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) with both breeding cost and capital advantages; Relevant beneficiary object Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) .
The safety margin of the dynamic insurance sector appears, and the industry space may usher in accelerated capacity expansion. It is recommended to focus on China's leading animal subunit vaccine enterprise Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) .
Feed sales benefit from the high scale of pig stock, and the increase of column pressure in winter remains unabated. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading feed enterprise Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) with outstanding advantages in product power and service power.
The price rise conduction superimposed weather disturbance, and the planting chain landscape continued. It is suggested to pay attention to the Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) target of grain price increase. Highlight the recommendation of transgenic technology with outstanding advantages Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ; And Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) where the fundamentals will improve; Related beneficiary objects Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) , Syngenta (to be listed).
Market performance this week market performance this week (1.17-1.21): Agriculture underperformed the market by 3.24 percentage points
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, while the agricultural index fell 3.20%, underperforming the market by 3.24 percentage points. In terms of sub sectors, the fishery sector led the decline, with a decrease of 10.64%. In terms of individual stocks, Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) (+ 8.68%), Cnfc Overseas Fisheries Co.Ltd(000798) (+ 7.62%) and Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) (+ 4.87%) led the gains.
Price tracking this week (1.17-1.21): the prices of pigs, piglets, white feather chicken seedlings, medium speed chicken, bass, corn and soybean meal rose this week
Pig breeding: according to the monitoring of Boya Hexun, on January 21, 2022, the average price of three yuan pigs abroad was 14.28 yuan / kg, compared with -0.31 yuan / kg last Friday; The average price of piglets was 24.21 yuan / kg, up from last Friday + 0.10 yuan / kg; The average price of white striped meat was 19.20 yuan / kg, up + 0.34 yuan / kg from last Friday. Today, the price ratio of pig feed is 3.98:1. According to wind data, on January 21, the average profit of self breeding head was -300.36 yuan / head, compared with -30.61 yuan / head; The average profit of purchased piglets is -33.15 yuan / head, with a month on month increase of + 5.61 yuan / head.
White feather broiler: according to wind data, the average price of chicken seedlings this week was 1.12 yuan / feather, a month on month increase of + 6.67%; The average price of wool chicken was 7.98 yuan / kg, with a month on month ratio of - 0.13%; The breeding profit of hairy chicken was 0.20 yuan / feather, a month on month increase of + 0.74 yuan / feather.
Risk tip: the macro economy is down and the consumption remains depressed; Uncertainty of animal diseases in winter, etc.
