Baijiu mobile sales feedback is good, Cabio Biotech (Wuhan) Co.Ltd(688089) enters the high growth period.
From January 17 to January 21, the food and beverage index increased by 3.8%, ranking third in the primary sub industry, outperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 by about 2.7pct. Baijiu (5.2%), beer (4.2%) and dairy products (2.3%) were relatively advanced in the sub sectors, and should be related to the expected changes in the market. The Baijiu liquor has been basically stocked and entered the stage of substantial sales. At present, the epidemic situation has little impact on the payment collection of manufacturers, and there is differentiation in different regions of mobile sales: due to the stricter control in the epidemic area, the flat sales are also expected; However, more regions have not been affected by the epidemic, and the mobile sales still maintain a good momentum. The Spring Festival sales of Baijiu will last until the first month, and many epidemic situations are effectively controlled. The consumption of part of the loss before the festival may be compensated after the festival. It is predicted that the sales of the famous spring festival wine will keep growing. With the gradual landing of the mobile pin, the pessimism expectation of the Baijiu liquor market is corrected. We are still optimistic about the opportunities of high-end Baijiu and sub high end Baijiu, and the current valuation is in a reasonable range.
This week, the Cabio Biotech (Wuhan) Co.Ltd(688089) equity incentive draft was issued, which proposed the incentive unlocking conditions, and the compound growth of income assessment from 2022 to 2024 was more than 25%. We expect that it will not be difficult to achieve the performance target. On the one hand, the implementation of the new national standard will enhance the certainty and flexibility of Cabio Biotech (Wuhan) Co.Ltd(688089) medium and long-term performance. The new national standard for milk powder has been implemented in February 2021. After implementation, it is expected to drive the demand for ARA and DHA to more than double, enhance Cabio Biotech (Wuhan) Co.Ltd(688089) performance certainty, and the actual elasticity is expected to be greater. On the other hand, with the gradual liberalization of the international market after the expiration of DSM patents in 2023 and the instability of the global supply chain during the epidemic, the progress of the international market is expected to accelerate in 2022. In the medium and long term, with the expiration of DSM patent in June 2023, the international market Cabio Biotech (Wuhan) Co.Ltd(688089) share still has great room for improvement. In addition, the second growth curve of bird’s nest acid is opened, and the cosmetics market can be expected for a long time. Cabio Biotech (Wuhan) Co.Ltd(688089) has global competitiveness in the field of Ara and DHA, and has leading advantages in product quality, process, cost and quality control system. After the implementation of the new national standard, the milk powder industry will start a new round of formula upgrading to accelerate the medium and high-end of the milk powder industry. The company is expected to fully benefit from the dividend of the new round of formula upgrading. At the same time, the second growth curve of SA is opened, the cosmetics market is expected to relay, and the superposition of equity incentive is expected to enhance employees’ confidence. We judge that Cabio Biotech (Wuhan) Co.Ltd(688089) is about to enter the stage of rapid performance growth.
Recommended combination: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Cabio Biotech (Wuhan) Co.Ltd(688089)
(1) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) cancel the unpacking policy of Feitian Maotai liquor, and the price difference between the original box and bulk bottle is expected to narrow, which is conducive to the development of marketization. The price increase of Maotai liquor is expected to rise. Considering the supply of base liquor, the planned revenue target is expected to accelerate in 2022. The company has room to move calmly in terms of volume and price, and the logic of simultaneous rise of volume and price in the future is smooth. (2) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) recently, the wholesale price has rebounded, the channel inventory is low, and the shipment is more stable than that in the early stage. Considering the changes of quotas inside and outside the plan, it is expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2022. (3) Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) the rapid growth shows that the fundamentals of the company are strong, and the change of the company will usher in a new direction of development. The company has profound brand heritage, mature mechanism and team, and it is a long-term trend to realize the return of the brand to the high-end. (4) Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) the price increase has a positive impact on costs and channel profits. The condiment industry is slowly repaired, and the company also shows a recovery trend. Considering the price increase, it is expected to return to the normal growth level in 2022. Proposed layout and long-term holding. (5) Cabio Biotech (Wuhan) Co.Ltd(688089) : the draft equity incentive was issued. After the implementation of the new national standard, the milk powder industry started a new round of formula upgrading, accelerating the medium and high-end of the milk powder industry. The company is expected to fully benefit from the dividend of the new round of formula upgrading. At the same time, the second growth curve of SA is opened, and the cosmetics market is expected to relay.
Risk tips: economic downturn, food safety, fluctuations in raw material prices, lower than expected recovery in consumer demand, etc.
