Key investment points
[China’s new installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in 2021 is 53gw, and the growth of distributed photovoltaic power generation is strong] on January 20, the statistics of the national energy administration showed that the newly added installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in 2021 was about 53gw, an increase of 10% year-on-year. Among them, distributed photovoltaic added about 29gw, a year-on-year increase of 87%. The newly installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic power generation accounts for about 55% of the total newly installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation, exceeding 50% for the first time in history. The development trend of both centralized and distributed photovoltaic power generation is obvious. Among the new distributed PV, household PV will be about 21.5gw in 2021, accounting for 74% of the new distributed PV.
[ Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) evogo adapts to 80% of the world’s electric vehicle power exchange mode or becomes an industry consensus] on January 18, the wholly-owned subsidiary of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) times electric service launched the power exchange brand evogo. A single battery can provide a battery life of about 200 kilometers, and can adapt to 80% of the world’s models developed by pure electric platforms that have been listed and will be listed in the next three years.
[important announcement] Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) : it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1-1.05 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 159.81% – 172.80%. Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) : the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2.1-2.3 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 294.09% – 331.62%. Anhui Estone Materials Technology Co.Ltd(688733) : it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 100-110 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 121.78% – 143.96%. Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) : the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.72-2.05 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 39.92% – 66.76%. Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) : the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 490-506 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 190.67% – 200.16%.
[lithium iron phosphate price rises with lithium salt price] [cobalt] according to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, on January 21, the mainstream quotation of electrolytic cobalt in China was 498000-502000 yuan / ton, with the average price unchanged from last week. Cobalt sulfate was reported at 104000-105000 yuan / ton, with the average price rising by 0200 yuan / ton compared with last week. Co3O4 reported 406-41000 yuan / ton, with an average price increase of 5000 yuan / ton compared with last week. In terms of cobalt, the reserve of Chinese electrolytic cobalt downstream enterprises has been completed, and most enterprises are mainly on the sidelines. The shortage of raw materials and the small amount of spot in the market will jointly support the high price of electric cobalt. Cobalt salt turnover increased compared with last week. In addition to the enterprises replenishing the warehouse before the year, the demand of downstream battery plants has increased recently, and the market activity has increased slightly. In the future, it is expected that the price will continue to rise slightly due to the increase of cost and purchase increment. [lithium] according to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, on January 21, the quotation of metal lithium was 1.84-1.89 million yuan / ton, with the average price rising by 260000 yuan / ton compared with last week. The mainstream price of battery grade lithium carbonate was reported at 345000-353000 yuan / ton, and the average price increased by 23000 yuan / ton compared with last week. The quotation of battery grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particle) is 292000-301000 yuan / ton, and the average price is 22000 yuan / ton higher than last week. In January, when the supply of lithium salt was reduced due to the maintenance of some lithium salt enterprises, the lithium carbonate market was hard to find. In January, under the influence of high nickel battery impulse, the demand for battery grade lithium hydroxide increased significantly, there was a gap in the market and the price rose. [ternary material] according to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, on January 21, the mainstream price of ternary material (type 523) was 268000-276000 yuan / ton, and the average price increased by 5500 yuan / ton compared with last week. The quotation of ternary precursor (type 523) is 129000-132000 yuan / ton, and the average price is the same as that of last week. On the supply side, the operating rate of some small and medium-sized factories has decreased slightly, the delivery of documents has been delayed and holidays have been taken in advance, and the supply of ternary materials may decline slightly. At present, the market is still dominated by inquiry, with low transaction and activity. In the future, it is expected that the price of ternary materials will continue to rise with the cost. [lithium iron phosphate cathode] according to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, on January 21, the price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 122000-127000 yuan / ton, and the average price increased by 10000 yuan / ton compared with last week. The price of lithium iron phosphate (energy storage type) is 117000-121000 yuan / ton, and the average price is 10000 yuan / ton higher than last week. On the supply side, it is difficult to purchase lithium salt. There is a shortage of supply in many large iron lithium plants, and a few manufacturers have to choose to reduce production. On the demand side, at present, most terminal enterprises have completed the preparation before the Spring Festival, but there are still zero orders signed one after another. It is expected that the price of iron lithium will still rise with the price of lithium salt in the future. Key recommendations: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) . It is recommended to pay active attention to: Shandong Kaisheng New Materials Co.Ltd(301069) , Anhui Estone Materials Technology Co.Ltd(688733) , Zhuhai Cosmx Battery Co.Ltd(688772) , Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) .
[the upstream supply price soared and the component price remained stable temporarily] according to pvinfolink data, on January 19, the mainstream quotation of [silicon material] polycrystalline silicon compact was 234000 yuan / ton, and the average price increased by 1.7% compared with last week. In terms of supply, the global silicon production increased month on month, but the increase is still limited. Although there is a certain scale of silicon inventory level at the beginning of the period, the supply capacity is still difficult compared with the increase of production capacity on the demand side. [silicon chip] the mainstream quotation of single crystal silicon chip 166mm is 5.150 yuan / PC, and the average price is up 4.0% from last week. The mainstream quotation of 182mm monocrystalline silicon wafer is 6.150 yuan / PC, with the average price rising by 5.1% compared with last week. The mainstream quotation of 210mm monocrystalline silicon wafer is 8.100 yuan / PC, with the average price rising by 5.2% compared with last week. In terms of supply, the overall inventory of monocrystalline silicon wafers has accelerated to be cleared. However, the current supply channel of monocrystalline silicon wafers has not been greatly expanded. The increase and release of actual output requires a climbing process. Unfortunately, it was affected by the Qinghai earthquake disaster to varying degrees in the crystal pulling area. In terms of demand, the demand for silicon wafers from batteries is rebounding, superimposing the demand for goods preparation during the Spring Festival holiday. In addition, the adverse impact of the recent outbreak of the epidemic in many places in the north on logistics has caused a mismatch between short-term supply and demand again. [cell] the mainstream quotation of 166mm single crystal perc cell is 1.080 yuan / W, and the average price is 2.9% higher than last week. The mainstream quotation of 182mm single crystal perc battery is 1.100 yuan / W, and the average price is 1.9% higher than last week. The mainstream quotation of 210mm single crystal perc battery is 1.060 yuan / W, and the average price is 2.4% higher than that of last week. The price of battery rises with the price rise of the upstream. However, the purchasing strength of the component end is weak, and the price rise power of the battery end before the new year’s festival is afraid to be limited. [component] the mainstream quotation of 365-375 / 440-450w single crystal perc component is 1.850 yuan / W, and the average price is the same as last week. The mainstream quotation of 182mm single crystal perc module is 1.880 yuan / W, and the average price is the same as that of last week. Considering the demand and terminal acceptance at the component end, the price has not been significantly adjusted. [photovoltaic glass] the mainstream price of 3.2mm coating is reported as 25.0 yuan / m2, and the average price is the same as that of last week. The mainstream quotation of 2.0mm coating is 19.2 yuan / m2, and the average price is the same as last week. Key recommendations: Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) , Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) . It is recommended to pay active attention to: Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) , Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) , Chengdu Guibao Science & Technology Co.Ltd(300019) , Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) , Levima Advanced Materials Corporation(003022) .
Risk warning: the policy is not as expected; The recovery of China’s photovoltaic demand is less than expected; The sales volume of new energy vehicles recovered less than expected; The impact of overseas epidemic continues
