Core view
Among the sectors in the post real estate cycle this week, the sectors of white appliances, services Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , kitchen appliances and furniture rose, while the sectors of white appliances and services Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) performed relatively strongly. The CSI 300 index rose by 1.11% this week. Among the sectors in the post real estate cycle, the white goods and service Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) sectors rose by 5.44% and 2.39% respectively this week, outperforming the market by 4.32pct and 1.28pct respectively. The kitchen appliances and furniture sectors rose by 1.00% and 0.55% respectively this week. The small household appliances, black household appliances and lighting electricians sectors fell by 4.01%, 2.65% and 2.32% respectively this week, outperforming the market by 0.12pct and 2.32% respectively 0.57pct、5.13pct、3.76pct、3.43pct。
Domestic sales: in December, the retail sales of furniture and household appliances turned to negative growth year-on-year. (1) Upstream raw material price: the price of furniture sector has not been updated this week, the price of chemical raw materials for soft furniture has increased, the price of copper and aluminum has decreased, and the price of plastic raw materials has decreased. (2) China’s real estate demand: in December 2021, the year-on-year negative growth rate of new house sales area expanded, and the year-on-year positive growth rate of completed area narrowed; In December, the transaction volume of second-hand houses continued to decline year-on-year. According to the real estate data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the national residential sales area decreased by 19.4% year-on-year in December 2021 and 10.2% year-on-year in December 2019; In terms of second-hand housing transactions, in December 2021, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in China’s top 10 cities was 45700 units, a year-on-year decrease of 39%; In terms of the opening of hardbound houses, according to the statistical data of ovicloud, the opening volume of hardbound houses nationwide was about 302000 units in November 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 10.8%. (3) Retail tracking: in December 2021, the retail sales of furniture decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, and the retail sales of household appliances decreased by 6% year-on-year. In terms of breakdown categories, according to the monitoring data of ovicloud, the online retail sales of integrated stove and sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) in December 2021 increased by 0.8% and 20.5% respectively year-on-year, the online sales of kitchen large and small household appliances decreased by 16.4% and 24% respectively year-on-year, and the online retail sales of cleaning appliances increased by 11.9% year-on-year. According to the statistics of Amoy data platform, the year-on-year growth rate of multi brand sales of large household appliances, kitchen appliances and household appliances was negative in December 2021.
Export: in December, the export volume of furniture industry turned to negative growth year-on-year, and the export volume of home appliance industry maintained positive growth year-on-year. (1) Overseas real estate demand: in December 2021, the sales of existing homes in the United States decreased by 7% year-on-year, with continuous negative growth; In December, the number of new construction projects increased by 2% year-on-year and continued to grow positively. (2) Export performance of sectors and sub categories: in December 2021, the export volume of furniture industry turned to a year-on-year negative growth (- 4%), and the export volume of home appliance industry maintained a year-on-year positive growth (18%). According to the data disclosed by the General Administration of customs, in December 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of exports of electric ovens, toasters, electric frying pans and other categories increased significantly compared with the previous month, and the year-on-year growth rate of exports of range hoods and other categories decreased.
Investment proposal and investment object
The demand for domestic sales and exports in the post real estate cycle continues to grow rapidly. It is suggested to pay attention to the customized home leaders Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (002572, buy), Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) (603833, overweight), Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co.Ltd(300616) (300616, overweight), Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) (603801, not rated), and software furniture leaders Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) (603816, not rated); Benefiting from the high growth of emerging categories such as floor sweepers and small household appliances, it is suggested to pay attention to China’s floor sweepers Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) leaders Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) (603486, overweight), Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) (688169, buy), small household appliances leaders with continuous category innovation Joyoung Co.Ltd(002242) (002242, overweight), Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) (002705, buy), Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) (002959, overweight), Shenzhen Crastal Technology Co.Ltd(300824) (300824, overweight).
Risk tips
The risk of real estate sales and completion falling short of expectations, and the risk of sharp rise in the price of raw materials
