Main points:
The penetration rate of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) medium-sized vehicles has been continuously improved, and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) announced to enter the power exchange market. In 2021, the penetration rate of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) medium-sized vehicles reached 13.4%, an increase of 8 percentage points over the previous year. With the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, mileage anxiety, energy supplement anxiety and purchase cost are still the pain points of consumers. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) released the power exchange brand evogo and officially entered the power exchange market; Some voices in the market believe that the power station replacement will have an impact on the charging pile. We believe that the power replacement is a supplement to the charging, not a substitute. On the one hand, the vehicle manufacturer chooses to cooperate with the battery to carry out modular battery and standardized power replacement, which is beneficial to the operation market and class of standardized models. On the other hand, consumers can choose different models and power supplement methods according to specific conditions, The future is the situation of common development of power exchange and charging.
In the long term, the scenery of the track is still good. The focus is clear, the advantages are obvious, and the supply and demand are still tight. The recent callback of the lithium battery sector is mainly due to the capital behavior such as trading and new year style, not fundamental changes. In the medium and long term, the lithium battery industry maintains a high momentum and is still the best investment track. In terms of the industrial chain, battery factories and material factories have steadily expanded their production capacity, the production schedule of each link has climbed month by month, and the demand of the middle and lower reaches has been increasing. Non power batteries, such as energy storage, have also gradually increased, and the industry still maintains high-speed growth. The industry’s high growth and high outlook support the sector upward. It is suggested to pay attention to battery factories with global competitiveness at the head and midstream material links with still tight relative supply and demand, such as negative electrode, graphitization, diaphragm, etc.
The contradiction between supply and demand supported the central high of lithium price, and the performance of lithium section was gradually realized
From the performance forecast of 2021q4, most companies that stably produce lithium salt have reaped profits from the upward price of lithium. Due to the intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand of lithium salt, the spot futures price and long-term individual price have continued to rise. The difficulty and progress of lithium resource development are difficult to match the speed and magnitude of downstream demand growth. Supply and demand strongly support the medium and long-term high price of lithium, It is expected to drive the performance of lithium industry company to continue to achieve high growth; Throughout the lithium industry chain, lithium salt supply may become the decisive factor for the release of capacity in the middle and lower reaches, and the profit moves upward; The high performance of lithium section underestimates the value. It is suggested to pay attention to the high-quality lithium target with high self-sufficiency rate of lithium resources, stable output at low cost and continuous expansion of production.
Three main lines of investment suggestions: first, release of production capacity, relief of cost pressure and recovery of gross profit. Battery plants: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) ; 2. Lithium resource companies with high lithium price supported by supply and demand and expected to realize excess profits: Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ; Three midstream material link companies with clear pattern, obvious advantages and tight supply and demand: Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , etc.
Risk warning: the development of new energy vehicles is not as expected; Disruptive breakthroughs in related technologies; Downstream demand is lower than expected; Product prices fell more than expected; The price of raw materials fluctuates.
