2021 Xinjiang cotton + hongxingerke event + Nike ADI and other overseas supply chains are tense. We believe that it brings an unprecedented development window period to the national brand and is also a turning point in the potential energy of the national brand. We are firmly optimistic about the general trend of domestic substitution in the sports field in the medium and long term. Specifically:
On the one hand, consumer confidence continues to be released with the strength of the country, the rise of culture and the change of purchasing power of new agents. Foreign brand worship returns to rationality. Xinjiang cotton, as a short-term event, activates medium and long-term consumption changes, and the era of domestic goods has come;
On the other hand, taking Li Ning Anta Tebu Bosideng as the representative national brand, it has comprehensively benchmarked overseas brands in terms of product power and operation power; The hard technology of shoes and clothing has not lost, the traditional cultural differentiation + emotional identity has broken through, the supply chain has been fully aligned, and the terminal channel has changed the extensive mode in the early years and taken on a new look.
In addition, according to the flow of Anta and Tebu terminals that have released Yingxi, they have maintained a scale growth of more than 25% throughout the year, leading brand clothing. The gap between the market share of national brands and foreign brands continues to narrow. We expect this trend to continue in 2022.
Relevant subject matter:
[Li Ning] running water continues to lead, and the operation trend of brand goods is positive. The product strength is the representative of domestic products, the commodity series matrix is improved, and continuous iteration is made to create high-quality growth; The story of brand IP is scarce, and the secondary brand drives the broken circle and is often new; Operation reform, bonus release and high-quality channels to feed back the business; The current market value corresponds to PE of 34.3x and 27.2x from 2022 to 2023 respectively.
[Anta] the main brand DTC has achieved remarkable results, ASP has improved steadily, and FILA's long-term trend remains unchanged. Anta DTC continues to improve business efficiency, and the Winter Olympics will drive the brand to increase; FILA's long-term goal remains unchanged, switching to high-quality growth and in-depth serialization and upgrading of commodities; Multi brands open up medium and long-term space. The current market value corresponds to PE of 29.0x and 23.5x from 2022 to 2023 respectively.
[special step] the business performance in 2021 is gratifying, and the future multi-channel construction will open a new growth path. Specialization drives the improvement of brand strength, and running labels promote the growth of commodity scale; Actively lay out high-dimensional cities and enrich the growth matrix of sports and leisure. The current market value corresponds to 26.2x and 20.8x PE respectively from 2022 to 2023.
In addition, it is suggested to pay attention to supply chain Shenzhou International, Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , virgin, Zhejiang Weixing Industrial Development Co.Ltd(002003) , Zhejiang Sunrise Garment Group Co.Ltd(605138) , etc.
Risk tips: repeated local epidemics, less than expected expansion of brand terminal stores, continuous rise in raw material prices and other risks.
