Report guide
Due to the authorization of covid-19 specific drug of MSD, the theme hot spot of covid-19 epidemic this week was quickly transferred from the previous covid-19 detection to the covid-19 drug related industrial chain, which was superimposed with the overweight of Guangdong alliance's centralized procurement policy, resulting in a large adjustment in the pharmaceutical sector. Under the capital game brought by hot spot switching and the policy risk of medical insurance cost control, it is suggested to stick to the main line of innovation and manufacturing.
Key investment points
Thinking this week: hot spot switching, centralized procurement and overweight, and adhering to the main line of innovative manufacturing
On the one hand, due to the authorization of covid-19 specific drug of MSD, the theme hot spot of covid-19 epidemic this week was quickly transferred from the early covid-19 detection to the covid-19 drug related industrial chain, triggering a capital game; On the other hand, this week, the Guangdong Provincial Drug Trading Center released the document on centralized procurement of diclofenac and other drugs of Guangdong alliance, in which growth hormone and blood products were included in centralized procurement for the first time, and growth hormone was not grouped for powder injection, water injection and long-term dosage forms, which exceeded market expectations. The above results in a major adjustment in the pharmaceutical sector this week. We believe that the current market hot spot switching is easy to bring about capital game. At the same time, under the background of the continuous expansion of medical insurance fee control and centralized purchase at the policy level, we should grasp and stick to the deterministic general direction of industry development. For example, China's high-pressure fee control policy environment will force low-end players out, highlight the innovative value of high-end players and accelerate their entry into the international market; Among the racetracks, "made in China" has the most comparative advantage in the international market due to factors such as engineer bonus and supply chain efficiency.
Performance this week: it fell sharply, and the correction of overvalued sectors was obvious
This week, the pharmaceutical sector fell 7.21%, 8.32 percentage points lower than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, the penultimate increase in all industries. In terms of trading volume, the turnover of the pharmaceutical industry this week was 738.06 billion yuan, accounting for 13.4% of the total turnover of all a shares, down 0.6pct month on month, 5.3pct higher than the central level in 18 years. As of January 21, 2022, the overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector (historical TTM, overall method, excluding negative values) was 32 times, down 1.7pct month on month, which was significantly lower than the central level since 2011 (PE 38 times). The valuation premium rate of the pharmaceutical industry relative to the CSI 300 was 146.9%, down 16.7 PCT from the previous week, significantly lower than the central level in the past four years (182.3%).
According to the classification of wind CITIC medicine, all fine molecular sectors of biomedicine fell this week, among which biomedicine (down 11.2%) and traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces (down 10.0%) fell significantly, and the chemical API sector (down 5.0%) fell the least. Considering that the classification of CITIC pharmaceutical involves cross businesses of some companies, according to the classification of key companies of Zheshang pharmaceutical, medical devices, scientific research services and biological drugs were the sectors with the largest decline this week (down 13.9%, 10.1% and 10.1% respectively), and the smallest decline was R & D innovative pharmaceutical enterprises (down 4.6%). Among them, the medical device sector is mainly Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) (down 31.9%), Beijing Strong Biotechnologies Inc(300406) (down 24.0%) and Getein Biotech Inc(603387) (down 20.9%). The heat of covid-19 test has subsided, and the increase in the early stage has retreated greatly; Scientific research services were mainly driven by the decline of Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) (down 19.8%), youningwei (down 16.9%) and Zhejiangtailin Bioengineering Co.Ltd(300813) (down 16.6%); In the biopharmaceutical sector, Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) (down 27.5%) was greatly affected by centralized mining, and Anhui Anke Biotechnology (Group)Co.Ltd(300009) (down 19.1%) and Tibet Rhodiola Pharmaceutical Holding Company(600211) (down 17.7%) also fell significantly.
Pharmaceutical investment strategy in 2022: grasp manufacturing and welcome innovation
We suggest that investors should break the "core assets" and "sector concept" so that they can look at the investment opportunities in the upstream and manufacturing links with the industrial chain thinking, and the innovative pharmaceutical machinery will continue to survive the fittest during the transition period. We believe that in 2022, medicine should adhere to the investment strategy of "grasping manufacturing and welcoming innovation".
Specifically, it is recommended to focus on:
1) manufacturing sector: API, cdmo and other subdivided fields, and Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Hainan Poly Pharm.Co.Ltd(300630) are recommended.
2) upstream: pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, consumables and other fields, recommend Sensong international, Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) , Shanghai Titan Scientific Co.Ltd(688133) , Shanghai Aladdin Biochemical Technology Co.Ltd(688179) , Jenkem Technology Co.Ltd(688356) and pay attention to Qingdao Haier Biomedical Co.Ltd(688139) , Zhejiangtailin Bioengineering Co.Ltd(300813) , Truking Technology Limited(300358) , Iray Technology Company Limited(688301) , Qingdao Novelbeam Technology Co.Ltd(688677) .
3) innovation: for international equipment and pharmaceutical companies, it is recommended to pay attention to Micro-Tech (Nanjing) Co.Ltd(688029) , minimally invasive medical treatment, Beijing Balance Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688198) , Baiji Shenzhou, Xinda biology, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , kangfang biology, etc.
4) others: consumer attributes, medical services, innovative supporting industry companies, recommend Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) , Joinn Laboratories (China) Co.Ltd(603127) , pay attention to Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) , Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , etc
Risk tips
Changes in industrial policies; The price reduction of core products exceeded expectations; R & D progress is less than expected.
