Price: steel price differentiation this week. This week, the price of 20mm HRB400 thread was 4730 yuan / ton, down from - 0.4% last week, and the price of hot rolling 3.0mm was 4970 yuan / ton, up from + 0.2% last week. Raw material price differentiation this week. This week, the price of iron ore in the port rose compared with last week; Coke prices were flat compared with last week; Scrap prices fell from last week.
Profit: the profit of rebar fell this week. In terms of long-term process, it is estimated that the gross profit per ton of rebar, hot rolling and cold rolling in the industry this week is - 58 yuan / ton, - 29 yuan / ton and - 82 yuan / ton respectively compared with the previous week. In terms of short process, the profit of electric furnace steel fell this week compared with the previous week.
Output and inventory: this week, the output of deformed steel bars declined on a weekly basis, while that of the five major steel mills and social warehouses increased on a weekly basis. In terms of output, the output of large steel varieties on Friday was 9.1 million tons, down 245800 tons on a week-on-week basis, including 292200 tons of construction steel, 46400 tons of sector and 208000 tons to 2635900 tons of rebar. In terms of different steelmaking methods, the output of long and short process deformed steel bars this week were 2473100 tons and 162800 tons respectively, and the cycle to cycle ratio was -72300 tons and -135700 tons respectively. In terms of inventory, on Friday, the total social inventory of large steel varieties increased by 546600 tons to 9701600 tons on a week-on-week basis, the total inventory of steel mills increased by 4242900 tons on a week-on-week basis, of which the social warehouse of rebar increased by 469400 tons and the factory warehouse decreased by 15800 tons. In terms of apparent consumption and steel turnover, it is estimated that the apparent consumption of rebar this week is 2182300 tons, with a decrease of 465900 tons on a weekly basis. The daily average of construction steel turnover this week is 56500 tons, with a decrease of 52.63% on a weekly basis.
Investment suggestion: in the short term, the downstream of the demand side has entered the off-season of consumption. It is estimated that the apparent consumption of rebar this week is 2182300 tons, and the daily average transaction volume of construction steel is 56500 tons, which is at a low level; The price of raw materials was relatively strong during the replenishment period of downstream steel mills before the Spring Festival, and the profits of steel mills declined. However, recently, the central bank cut interest rates and the central bank gave an unprecedented clear easing signal at the press conference of the state information office, and the financing constraints of real estate enterprises began to show signs of loosening. With the expectation of real estate relaxation and stable growth of infrastructure, the market's demand expectation has gradually increased. On the supply side, the national electric furnace factories have basically had a holiday, and the "Winter Olympics" is approaching. The expectation of production restriction in the north is becoming stricter, and the steel output began to fall, supporting the steel price. On the raw material side, the iron ore port inventory is still at a high level, and the coal output gradually recovers under the stimulation of policies. As the replenishment of steel mills before the Spring Festival approaches the end, the raw material price will be relatively weaker than the finished product price. On the whole, the central bank has recently cut interest rates, clearly released easing signals, superimposed policy effects such as real estate relaxation and stable growth of infrastructure are expected to gradually appear, the market's expectation for the improvement of steel consumption is enhanced, and the supply side output is limited for a long time, supporting steel prices. The supply of raw materials is relatively loose. As the replenishment of steel mills before the festival is coming to an end, the price rate of subsequent raw materials is probably weaker than that of finished products, and the profit of steel mills is expected to recover. Suggestions: 1) ordinary steel sector: Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) ; 2) Special steel sector: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) ; 3) Superalloy target: Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) .
Risk tip: the demand for real estate steel has fallen precipitously; Steel prices fell sharply; The price of raw materials fluctuated sharply.
