Key investment points
CXO and vaccine sectors are expected to continue high growth. We forecast the performance of 53 pharmaceutical listed companies in 2021. From the perspective of growth rate, 10 companies are expected to have a performance growth rate of more than 50% in Q4 in a single quarter, 10 companies with a net profit growth rate of 30% ~ 50%, 9 companies with a net profit growth rate of 15% ~ 30%, 5 companies with a net profit growth rate of 0% ~ 15%, 11 companies with a year-on-year decline in net profit, and 8 companies do not have a performance growth rate in Q4 due to base, Hong Kong stocks, losses and other reasons. In terms of sectors, CXO and vaccine core companies achieved high performance growth in the whole year.
Based on the analysis of industry prosperity and individual stocks, (1) CXO sector: it is expected that Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) (year-on-year + 136% ~ 146%) and Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) (year-on-year + 65% ~ 100%) will increase significantly in 2021q4. It is expected that Yaoming biology will increase by 30% ~ 50% year-on-year in the second half of 2021, and the high outlook of the industry will continue; (2) Vaccine sector: it is estimated that Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) will turn losses into profits, with an annual performance of 1.7 ~ 2 billion yuan. It is estimated that Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) (year-on-year + 129% ~ 251%) and Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) (year-on-year + 94% ~ 215%) will increase significantly in 2021q4, and covid-19 vaccine will contribute more; (3) Medical devices: affected by the high base number of the epidemic in 2020, the sector is divided. It is expected that Maider Medical Industry Equipment Co.Ltd(688310) (year-on-year + 290% ~ 310%, low base), Lepu Medical Technology (Beijing) Co.Ltd(300003) (year-on-year + 270% ~ 300%, low base), Micro-Tech (Nanjing) Co.Ltd(688029) (year-on-year + 50 ~ 60%), and the annual performance of Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) is expected to increase by 20% ~ 25% year-on-year. (4) Service sector: Guangzhou Kingmed Diagnostics Group Co.Ltd(603882) it is expected that 2021q4 will increase by 40 ~ 50% year-on-year. (5) Innovative drugs and preparations: expected 2021q4 Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) performance is - 3.8% ~ 5.9% year-on-year; (6) Biopharmaceutical sector: expected 2021q4 performance growth rate of Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) (year-on-year + 30% ~ 40%), Zhejiang Wolwo Bio-Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300357) (year-on-year 30% ~ 40%), Anhui Anke Biotechnology (Group)Co.Ltd(300009) (year-on-year + 30% ~ 40%) (7) pharmacy sector: expected 2021q4 Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) performance growth rate of 30% ~ 70% year-on-year.
Only from the perspective of growth rate, the 2021q4 performance grew faster year-on-year: Maider Medical Industry Equipment Co.Ltd(688310) (290% ~ 310% year-on-year, low base), Lepu Medical Technology (Beijing) Co.Ltd(300003) (270 ~ 300% year-on-year, low base), Yifan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002019) (200% ~ 300% year-on-year), Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) (136% ~ 146% year-on-year), Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) (129% ~ 251% year-on-year), Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) (94% ~ 215% year-on-year), and Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) (83% ~ 177% year-on-year).
Adhering to the strategy of 2022, "through medical insurance" and "epidemic desensitization" are the two core main lines. Looking forward to the next three years, with the improvement of the epidemic and the gradual recovery of the economy, there is little possibility of the relaxation of the global and China's macro liquidity margin in the future. We judge that the pharmaceutical valuation is expected to return to equilibrium in the future. At the same time, in the era of normalization of medical insurance pressure and post epidemic, we will focus on looking for varieties of "through medical insurance" and "epidemic desensitization". On the one hand, the pharmaceutical machinery leader is expected to cross the "medical insurance border" through "continuous innovation + internationalization"; On the other hand, for the downstream TOC end, focus on the varieties that do not account for medical insurance, such as traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods, self funded biological drugs, medical and American products, while for the upstream tob end of the industrial chain, focus on the CXO sector and equipment sector of the innovation Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) chain, including pharmaceutical machinery equipment, pharmacy automation equipment, consumables production equipment, life science reagents, etc.
Risk warning: drug price reduction risk; The implementation progress of medical reform policy is lower than the expected risk; Risk of R & D failure.
