Main points:
As of January 21, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04% and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 1.11% this week. Steel sector fell by 0.24%; Among the sub sectors, the ordinary steel sector increased by 0.00%, and the special material sector decreased by 1.10%.
Steel market: the stock replenishment before the festival is coming to an end, and the steady growth of policy based construction drives the expectation of steel demand
This week, steel prices fluctuated in a narrow range. This week, steel prices were slightly differentiated. The spot prices of rebar and cold rolling decreased by 0.42% and 0.72%, and the prices of hot rolling and medium sector increased by 0.20% and 0.41% respectively. This week, the steel market resumed trading. Electric furnace steel mills stopped production one after another, but some still received goods, driving prices to remain strong. With the approaching of the new year, the market has gradually entered the holiday state, and the overall demand side has weakened. It is expected that the steel market may continue to fluctuate next week. With the steady growth of the foundation at the end of fiscal policy and the easing signal released by the central bank at the end of monetary policy, the industry demand is expected to increase, and the profits of steel mills are expected to be repaired. At present, the sector is at the undervalued level, which is a good opportunity for layout.
In terms of special steel, stainless steel has good support for a long time, so it is recommended to continue to pay attention. In the long run, with the support of the national carbon peak policy, the reduction of crude steel production has become a deterministic trend, which is important for the price and profit of stainless steel. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) and other targets.
As the core metal material in the field of new energy vehicles, electrical steel is also a sector worthy of attention. Electrical steel is the motor and core material of new energy vehicles. Under the resonance of carbon neutralization at the policy end, accelerated admission of new and old car making forces at the supply end, and improved economy and convenience at the consumer end, new energy vehicles have developed rapidly, driving the downstream demand for electrical steel, The electrical steel sector has ushered in a major opportunity, but at present, the valuation of Companies in the sector is generally not high. They are optimistic about the electrical steel sector for a long time. It is suggested to focus on Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , etc.
As of Friday, the price of rebar in the spot market was 4730.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly decline of 0.42%; The price of hot rolled coil is 4970.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.20%; The price of cold rolled coil was 5510.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.72%; The price of medium board was 4940.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.41%. In the futures market, the active contract price of rebar was 4711.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 1.01%; The active contract price of hot rolled coil was 4822.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 1.05%; The active contract price of wire rod was 5062.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 5.92%. The myspic composite steel price index was 178.27 points, with a weekly increase of 0.34%, of which the myspic long material index increased by 0.32% and the myspic flat sector index increased by 0.38%.
Raw material Market: the spot is in short supply, the market mentality is bullish, the operating rate is down, the price is strong, the coke market is temporarily stable this week, and the iron ore market is gradually stronger. In terms of double coke, with the approaching of the Winter Olympic Games, the expectation of steel plant production restriction is further strengthened, which affects the coke price to fall again. With the Spring Festival approaching, coal mines in some areas began to stop production and have holidays. The stock of raw coal in the warehouse of coke enterprises in the main producing area has increased to a medium to high level. In terms of iron ore, also affected by the Winter Olympics, the production restriction of steel mills was tightened, and the operating rate of blast furnace decreased. However, driven by the positive macro and financial expectations in the first quarter, traders have made layout for the market in March.
As of Friday, the price of Australian Pb powder in the spot market was 865.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 3.59%; The price of primary metallurgical coke was 3310.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.00%; The price of main coking coal was 2150.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.00%. In the futures market, the active contract price of iron ore was 755.50 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 4.64%; The contract coke price was 2907.50 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 5.66%; The active price of coking coal was 2206.50 yuan / ton, with a weekly decline of 4.04%.
Steel supply and demand: stable supply and weak demand, and steel market prices continue to rise
In terms of steel output this week, cold rolling, rebar, wire rod and medium and heavy sector decreased by 0.05%, 7.31%, 6.50% and 0.09% compared with last week, and hot rolling increased by 1.54%. In terms of steel mill inventory this week, the inventory of cold rolling, hot rolling and medium and heavy sector increased by 3.43%, 5.66% and 1.55% respectively, and the inventory of wire rod and rebar decreased by 1.48% and 0.88%. The demand side continued to weaken, with only a small number of transactions and winter storage in some regions. The market operation has little to do with the weak reality of the steel market. It is more optimistic about the expectations after the year. In the short term, the residual temperature of the good news is still there, superimposing the demand after the festival, and the price is still possible to rise.
Investment advice
With the recovery of manufacturing demand superimposed on the background of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, the profit logic of the steel industry has been reconstructed, and steel enterprises have further benefited from the cyclical rotation. We are still optimistic about the steel sector for a long time. The national defense, military industry and aerospace industry have a broad domestic substitution space, and products such as superalloy, special stainless steel and ultra-high strength steel occupy an absolute dominant position. It is suggested to focus on the performance of the interim report and the special steel leader who can fulfill the high-profile of the industry: Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) ; Traditional field leaders + popular emerging business targets are more favored by the market. It is suggested to focus on stainless steel rods and wires and mica lithium extraction leaders: Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ; And the high growth leader in the field of cold rolled stainless steel: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) .
Risk tips
Covid-19 epidemic situation is repeated; The economic downturn accelerated; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; The demand for real estate steel fell sharply; Steel destocking process is blocked.
