Key investment points:
According to the wholesale volume data of the passenger Federation, in December 2021, a total of 11 new energy models sold more than 10000 vehicles per month, including 2 Tesla models and Byd Company Limited(002594) 4 models. In addition, in December 2021, the sales of Byd Company Limited(002594) Tang DM, Byd Company Limited(002594) yuan EV, Euler black cat, Xiaopeng P7 / P5, ai'an aions and other models also reached the range of 5000-10000 vehicles, which has great potential to sprint the goal of selling more than 10000 vehicles per month. We expect that with the launch of key models such as Byd Company Limited(002594) Han DM-I, Byd Company Limited(002594) destroyer 05, Weilai et7 / et5, Xiaopeng G9 and Zhiji L7 in 2022 and the launch of more heavy models in Beijing auto show, the popular models of new energy will expand significantly and promote the continuous high growth of the market.
Among the top 15 automobile enterprises in the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in 2021, 12 are independent, of which 4 are new forces. In December 2021, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in independent brands / luxury cars / mainstream joint venture brands was 39% / 32.7% / 3.3% respectively. The electrification penetration rate of independent brands is much higher than that of the industry. It is expected that independent brands will further strengthen their advantages and build popular models in batches in 2022.
In the middle of 2021, the monthly sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger cars increased rapidly, with the annual cumulative sales volume of 3.33 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 168%, and the annual new energy penetration rate of 15.5%, a year-on-year increase of 9.3 PCT; Among them, the sales volume reached 500000 in December, and the penetration rate of new energy was as high as 20.6%. Under the general trend of gradual decline of subsidies, the new energy vehicle market showed a strong growth momentum in 2021, which also reflects that consumers' recognition of new energy vehicles is rapidly improving, and the new energy vehicle market has officially changed from policy driven to market driven. It is expected that the new energy passenger vehicle market will continue to be booming in 2022, driving the overall sales volume of new energy vehicles to reach 5.6 million, with a year-on-year increase of about 60%.
Industry rating and investment strategy: the of industrial transformation α， The tide of the times β。 In December 2021, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased to 19%, the automotive industry changed, the gross profit margin of Tesla and new forces continued to increase, and the performance of Tesla's domestic suppliers generally increased rapidly; Tesla wave brings vehicle valuation revaluation, NOA function redefines, smart cars trigger an arms race, hardware stacking, and there is a large space for domestic substitution. Maintain the "recommended" rating of the automotive industry.
Three main lines are recommended:
1. Intelligent driving & Automotive Electronics: intelligent definition of automobile, arms race, hardware stacking and domestic substitution usher in historical opportunities. Recommend Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , Foryou Corporation(002906) , Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) , Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) , Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) , and pay attention to Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , Xi'An Sinofuse Electric Co.Ltd(301031) , Anhui Tongfeng Electronics Company Limited(600237) .
2. Tesla industrial chain & parts: Tesla manufacturing Revolution: 4680ctc + integrated die casting. Recommend Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) , and pay attention to Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Huada Automotive Technology Corp.Ltd(603358) .
3. Complete vehicle: Tesla wave brings the revaluation of complete vehicle valuation & strong model cycle OEM, recommend Byd Company Limited(002594) , Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , and pay attention to Xiaopeng automobile, ideal automobile, Weilai, Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Geely Automobile.
Risk tip: if the overseas epidemic continues to deteriorate, it will affect China's automobile export; Recommend the risk that the company's performance is less than expected; The risk that the demand growth is less than expected; Risk of continuous rise in raw material prices and freight; The risk that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is lower than expected.
