The performance of listed securities companies has increased significantly, and the annual performance is uncertain
Up to now, a total of 9 listed securities companies have released the performance express of 2021. On the whole, the growth rate of 4q21 performance of listed securities companies is higher than expected, driving the high growth of annual performance in 2021.
Q4 single quarter profit growth exceeded expectations, and the annual performance of Zhongda securities companies generally increased high: 4q21 two cities had active transactions, and the transaction volume continued to be above trillion; At the same time, the performance of the equity market is relatively stable, and under the low performance base of 4q20, the current impairment withdrawal pressure of securities companies has decreased significantly, the impairment is more cautious and the scale is controllable, so the profit performance of Q4 in a single quarter exceeded expectations. In terms of individual stocks, the net profit of CITIC, Guojun and China Merchants 4q21 in the first quarter increased by 138.0%, 55.7% and 40.1% respectively year-on-year, driving the net profit growth of the whole year in 21 years to 54.2%, 35.0% and 22.4% (the cumulative growth rate in the first three quarters was 39.4%, 30.0% and 16.9%), all significantly higher than that in the first three quarters. In addition, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) Q4 single quarter net profit turned positive, driving the annual net profit growth rate to 50.0% from – 1.6% in the first three quarters; Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) annual net profit increased by 50-70%; Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) the annual net profit increased by 360-437% (see the text for details). Fundamental support + interest rate cut landing, and pay attention to the value of securities companies allocated by sectors: the current performance express of securities companies continues to verify the certainty of fundamentals, and the interest rate cut landing this week, the market liquidity is relatively loose, and there are still certain expectations for the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates in the later stage. Recently, the policy side includes continuous catalysis such as standardizing the development of derivatives business, constantly standardizing and promoting the pilot of fund investment advisers of securities companies, optimizing the pilot of account management function, and the proposed introduction of market making business opportunity system in Chuang ban. The securities company sector is only 1.70 times Pb, which has the characteristics of undervalued value and high certainty, and attaches importance to the value of sector allocation. Suggestions at the individual stock level: 1) performance supported head brokers Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) , Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) and China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) H. 2) From the perspective of long-term and flexibility, they are still optimistic about the core targets of wealth management Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) ;
The bank performance express continues to improve, which is expected to catalyze the “restless spring” market
The bank’s performance express continued its positive trend: a. the revenue and profit maintained high growth. The growth rate of revenue and profit of 16 banks in 2021 was 11.0% and 21.7% respectively, of which the growth rate of revenue and profit in 2021q4 was 12.3% and 21.3% respectively, which was basically the same as that in the third quarter, and most banks had a single quarter profit growth rate of more than 20%. B. The scale of assets and liabilities increased steadily. The overall total assets of 16 banks increased by 2.6% compared with the end of September, including 1.9% increase in loans and 3.0% increase in deposits. As Q4 approaches the end of the year, the growth rate of bank scale will naturally slow down, and the bank credit supply in 22 years may have a good start. Compared with the same period of last year, the supply volume may increase. C. Asset quality continued to improve. The overall non-performing rate of 16 banks was 1.05%, which continued to decline by 4bps compared with the end of September, and the provision coverage increased by 7.5pc to 312.4%.
Continue to be optimistic about the “spring agitation” market of banks: the press conference of the state information office this week and the landing of interest rate cuts all reflect a relatively strong signal of “stable growth”. Under the rapid overweight of policies, we are optimistic about the “spring agitation” market reflected and catalyzed by the market after the formation of broad credit expectation. It is suggested to pay attention to: robust leading stocks ( Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) ), banks with undervalued retail characteristics and improved operation ( Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) ), high-quality small and medium-sized banks with expansion flexibility and strong willingness to convert convertible bonds into shares ( Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , Bank Of Suzhou Co.Ltd(002966) , Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) etc.) in a wide credit environment.
Regular data tracking: 1) interbank certificates of deposit: A. volume: according to wind data, the issuance scale of interbank certificates of deposit this week was 0.35 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.08 trillion yuan compared with last week; Since January, the issuance scale of interbank certificates of deposit has been 0.79 trillion yuan, and the balance has decreased by 1.12 trillion yuan month on month compared with the end of last month; B. Price: the issuing rate of interbank certificates of deposit this week was 2.58%, down 1bps from last week; So far this month, the issue interest rate is 2.59%. 2) Trading volume: the average daily turnover of stocks this week was 1.10 trillion yuan, an increase of 26.416 billion yuan over last week. 3) Two financing: the balance of two financing is 1.80 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.06% over last week. 4) Fund issuance: non monetary funds issued 46.165 billion shares this week, an increase of 25.917 billion month on week. 5) Bill interest rate: this week, the 3-month discount rate of bank notes of large state-owned banks + joint-stock banks was 2.41%, down 9bps from last week; So far this month, the interest rate is 2.54%, up 198bps month on month. The three-month bank note discount rate of urban commercial banks was 2.52%, down 7bps from last week. So far this month, the interest rate is 2.67%, up 184bps from last week. 6) Issuance scale of local government special bonds: 84.327 billion new special bonds were issued this week, an increase of 46.126 billion over last week. Since the beginning of the year, 122.528 billion local government bonds have been issued. The amount of local government bonds approved in advance in 2022 is 1.46 trillion.
Risk tip: the risks of real estate enterprises erupt intensively, and the macro-economy goes down; The promotion of capital market reform policy is less than expected; The sales of guaranteed products of insurance companies were lower than expected.
