Investment advice
This week's topic: how to treat the repeated effects of dot epidemic on the sales of Baijiu in Spring Festival? We think that Baijiu consumption has certain toughness. New change 1: at present, it is the time to return home. Compared with the same period of last year, the control of return policy is relatively relaxed this year. The return tide has begun to take shape, and the demand for gifts and local wine drinking should benefit first. New change 2: liquor enterprises have prospectively controlled the business rhythm and channel inventory, and the channel inventory was generally benign at the end of 21. Although the epidemic has an impact on sub high-end consumption in some regions, a benign channel inventory can iron out short-term demand fluctuations. On the whole, we believe that the impact of the epidemic on high-end wine is limited, and there is still certainty that the sub high-end wine will make a good start. Real estate wine is expected to benefit from the release of return demand. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the recent channel sales and return flow during the Spring Festival transportation.
Baijiu: the mood of the sector has warmed up during the week. We expect that the marginal improvement of the spot epidemic situation will be improved, and the flow of the Chinese people returning home from the Spring Festival will be improved year by year, and the monetary policy will be relaxed. Based on the current situation and combined with channel feedback, we believe that the consumption atmosphere of this year's Spring Festival is expected to be stable and good, and the high-end target is the first to be promoted (rigid consumption demand has strong toughness under external impact); It is suggested to pay attention to the performance acceleration targets (the downward trend of Suzhou wine and Huizhou wine returning home is clear), and the secondary high-end elastic targets (the impact of point epidemic is controllable, and the Q4 control rhythm is a good start to accumulate strength).
Beer: the recent rise in sentiment in the sector is mainly due to: 1) the marginal weakening of the impact of the epidemic; 2) Digestion of negative emotions in the early stage (for example, the performance of China Resources 21h2 is lower than expected, the rumor of heavy beer Q4 loss has been clarified, and the epidemic situation in Shaanxi and Henan, the key markets of Tsingtao beer, has been repeated). After adjustment, the valuation of the leader has gradually entered the cost performance range; 3) Within the week Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) Xinjiang Bu announced that the ex factory box price of hongwusu in and outside Xinjiang will be increased by 5% from February 1. We believe that throughout the year, we are still optimistic about the layout opportunities of the beer sector, focusing on the recovery of demand in the peak season of 22 years (the target growth rate of Tsingtao beer in 22 years is 2-3%, China Resources Microelectronics Limited(688396) ), the transmission of price increase (we expect that there may be price increase before the peak season of Qingdao Chunsheng and Xuehua Chunsheng, and look forward to the profit elasticity released after the price increase is implemented) Cost improvement (we estimate that the cost per ton of China Resources and Tsingtao beer may change in the middle single digit in 22 years), and the logic of "high-end + improvement of operating efficiency" in the medium and long term remains unchanged.
Condiments: affected by the national point epidemic, catering revenue continued the negative growth trend in November, with a slight downward trend of 0.5% year-on-year. At present, the overall catering data is at a low level, and the retail consumption demand is still weak. After the impact of community group buying and the tide of price increase in the industry, the inventory has gradually stabilized in a reasonable range, and the leading performance of the sector has passed the low point, waiting for the release of the price increase effect. Affected by the Spring Festival stock, the inventory of various brands increased slightly. It is expected that the inventory in the second quarter will be gradually digested to a reasonable level. At that time, the superimposed consumer demand will pick up, and the performance growth is expected to be reflected in the statement end.
Dairy products: we believe that the fundamentals of Yili, the leader in the sector, are stable and the valuation has a safety margin. According to recent research feedback, Yili's dynamic sales in November and December improved significantly compared with October, and the annual revenue is expected to achieve double-digit growth; On the profit side, due to the provision of Winter Olympic expenses, the profit margin is expected to be lower than that in the first three quarters, and the net interest rate of more than 8% is expected to be realized in the whole year. Looking forward to 22 years, we believe that the demand for dairy products will remain relatively stable; We believe that the trend of the top two companies to improve the profit margin is still clear, and the increase rate of raw milk will narrow, the cost pressure will be relieved, and the profit side will be more flexible.
Snack food: zhongqiaqia, the subject of the sector, performed steadily. According to the channel research, the double-digit growth of national sunflower and nuts increased by 50% in November; In December, Guokui increased by 30% (after deducting the price increase of about 20%) and nuts increased by 40-50%. We expect that the revenue and profit of 21q4 are expected to grow in double digits. Recently, juewe has experienced a correction due to the pressure on 21q4 profits, mainly due to the subsidies to franchisees and some expenses incurred from the acquisition of chaoxun black duck. We believe that the short-term adjustment will not affect the long-term development. This franchisee subsidy is not a continuous action, mainly to further enhance the confidence of franchisees in difficult times and ensure the long-term development.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downside risk / repeated epidemic risk / regional market competition risk
