Review of market and sector trends: last week, the media sector index fell 2.89%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.86%, the gem index fell 2.72%, and the yuan universe index fell 0.18%. The top three sectors Rose: Zhejiang Daily Digital Culture Group Co.Ltd(600633) (+ 28.27%), Inly Media Co.Ltd(603598) (+ 23.27%), Merit Interactive Co.Ltd(300766) (+ 8.72%); The top three declines in the sector: Beijing Fengshangshiji Culture Media Co.Ltd(300860) (- 20.70%), Shunya International Martech (Beijing) Co.Ltd(300612) (- 16.66%), Visual China Group Co.Ltd(000681) (- 13.65%). Last week, the NASDAQ China technology index fell 1.54% and the Hang Seng China enterprise index rose 2.72%.
One week’s view: “the 14th five year plan” Digital Economy Planning Driven sector led the increase last week [Zhejiang number (+ 28.27%)]. We released an in-depth report on Zhejiang Daily Digital Culture Group Co.Ltd(600633) : digital culture consolidating advantages and digital technology driving long-term growth on December 26, 21, focusing on the business layout of IDC and big data center of the company. In terms of meta universe, last week’s meta universe index (- 0.18%) Maintain the shock and promote the orderly development of the industry. Counterpoint globalxr predicts that the shipment volume of XR head display will exceed 100 million units in 2025, an increase of about 10 times. The [Google] ar helmet will be listed as soon as 2024, and a blockchain team will be established. In terms of content and application, overseas large manufacturers are overweight: on January 18, [Microsoft] announced that it would buy Blizzard for us $68.7 billion to build a meta universe from content, creator community and cloud games; [meta] plans to enter the NFT market and allow users to create and promote NFT. Retail leader Wal Mart announced the launch of virtual goods, currencies and NFT.
It is suggested to pay attention to manufacturers with hardware layout [Qualcomm, Facebook, Microsoft, Tencent, Huawei, byte, etc.]; Yuancosmos first launched application scenario games [ Zhejiang Century Huatong Group Co.Ltd(002602) ], giant, Yaoji (billion yuan invested in cardhobby layout card Ecology), Baotong, Huali, Kunlun Tech Co.Ltd(300418) , Oriental Pearl Group Co.Ltd(600637) ], etc; This week, we released the in-depth report “virtual digital man: the protagonist of the meta universe breaking through the circle”, focusing on [ Bluefocus Intelligent Communications Group Co.Ltd(300058) , Zhewen Interactive Group Co.Ltd(600986) , Beijing Jetsen Technology Co.Ltd(300182) , Inly Media Co.Ltd(603598) , Hylink Digital Solution Co.Ltd(603825) ]; Digital cultural and creative trading platforms [ Three’S Company Media Group Co.Ltd(605168) , Visual China Group Co.Ltd(000681) , Chengdu B-Ray Media Co.Ltd(600880) , Xinhuanetco.Ltd(603888) ], etc.
Ease policy expression, pay attention to follow-up policy signals and zhonggai performance. On January 19, the national development and Reform Commission and other nine ministries and commissions jointly issued several opinions on promoting the standardized, healthy and sustainable development of the platform economy, which affirmed the importance of the platform economy to the digital economy. The text encouraged platform enterprises to carry out model innovation, which was a positive expression, which was a signal of easing after a series of strict supervision such as antitrust at the end of the 20th year, On the 20th People.Cn Co.Ltd(603000) released “digital productivity in the game”. On the 21st, the Ministry of human resources and social security and other four departments once again provided administrative guidance to 11 platform enterprises such as meituan, hungry and didi to protect the rights and interests of workers in new employment forms. The follow-up policy signals need to be paid continuous attention. China concept shares have allocation value under the undervalued value.
Kwai TSE recently focused on the best targets with cost-effective performance, such as the dragon head [East Finance (net profit 4 billion 800 million yuan, yoy+66.9%, core business growth persistence), 37] and so on, and Hong Kong stock [fast track (we expect 21Q4 to achieve 22 billion 900 million operating income, up 26.5% over the same period last year)].
Key tips: 1) relatively high prosperity track, financial technology [Dongcai], etc; Technology [Xiaomi and Baidu (announcing the interconnection with meituan and xiaohongshu in terms of traffic, technology and service Ecology)]; Short video [fast track (CFO Zhong Yiqi retirement, Kwai Bing CFO), byte], medium video [beep], long video platform [Mango (net profit forecast yoy+2.92~7.96%)]; Online recruitment [boss direct employment], marginal improvement of real estate [shell].
2) in the game sector, the policy level pays attention to the progress of version number recovery, and the fundamentals pay attention to the launch of key products and the subsequent profit release. Focus on the head [Tencent, Netease (online mobile game version of eternal robbery)], China [Sanqi, perfectness (expected to achieve net profit of 350 ~ 390 million yuan in 21 years), G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) , Zhejiang Century Huatong Group Co.Ltd(002602) , Baotong, Caesar, giant, Fuchun, Yaoji (the performance forecast in 21 years meets the expectation), Huali, Rastar Group(300043) , Kunlun Tech Co.Ltd(300418) , Chinese Universe Publishing And Media Group Co.Ltd(600373) , Oriental Pearl Group Co.Ltd(600637) ], Hong Kong stocks [China Mobile Games, IgG, chizicheng technology], VR technology [Silk Road, Hengxin, Jiachuang], etc.
3) in combination with the progress of the epidemic, we will pay close attention to the film spring festival in the short term. As of the 22nd, the total pre-sale box office of the 22-year Spring Festival has exceeded 50 million, and the total pre-sale box office of “shuimen bridge of Changjin Lake” has exceeded 20 million. The strong season effect is expected to continue. Focus on movie targets including [ Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) , Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) , cat’s eye entertainment, China Film Co.Ltd(600977) ].
4) generation Z and community, maintaining high growth and high stickiness. Pay attention to [Bili], trendy play [bubble Mart] and [chuangmeng, aofei, Zhejiang Jinke Tom Culture Industry Co.Ltd(300459) ]; Online Q & a community [Zhihu], online music [Netease cloud], etc; [little red book].
Kwai Kwai, tiktok, 5) the electricity supplier and the industrial chain, the electronic business platform [Jingdong (Shopify) reached strategic cooperation, many spells, Ali (live broadcast incentive plan, support for the growth of the middle waist and new master)] and live platform [vibrato, fast hand (fast shop will support store and catering trade)], industrial chain [ Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) , Yao Ji, gravity] and so on. Marketing technology [focus, blue standard, vision, Leo], etc., byte benefit [ Three’S Company Media Group Co.Ltd(605168) , Zhewen Interactive Group Co.Ltd(600986) ], etc; Community retail [meituan (innovative cooperation with Starbucks on digital space), daily Youxian, dingdong], etc; Wechat ecological e-commerce SaaS [youzan (Gmv in small game market increased by more than 420% year-on-year), Weimeng].
Risk warning: epidemic impact, economic and political environment risk, stricter supervision, goodwill impairment risk
