Nonferrous Metals underperformed the market this week, down 2.82%. Over the same period, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04% to close at 3522.57; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.86% to close at 14029.55; The CSI 300 rose 1.11% to close at 4779.31.
Base metal
The current market of base metals is relatively strong in this cycle. Futures market: LME nickel, tin, zinc, copper and aluminum increased by 8.7%, 7.2%, 3.2%, 2.1% and 1.2% over the same period last week; Lead fell 0.82% from last week. China’s spot market: nickel, tin, aluminum, lead, zinc and copper increased by 6.8%, 4.7%, 0.9%, 0.6% and 0.2% respectively; Copper fell 0.5% from last week. Copper: copper prices fluctuated slightly this week. On the supply side, the supply of copper raw materials is loose, but there are disturbances. The customs clearance speed of copper concentrate in northern China has slowed down under the prevention and control of the epidemic. The Chinese market has ushered in a seasonal consumption off-season. With the Spring Festival approaching at the end of the year, some enterprises have gradually entered the state of holiday and shutdown, and the operating rate of copper processing enterprises has continued to decline. In terms of inventory, China’s inventory showed a slight decline during the week. As of Friday, SHFE copper inventory was about 35000 tons, up 15.7% from the same period last week. Aluminum: aluminum prices rose slightly this week, up 0.9% from the same period last week. The European energy crisis continued to ferment, and the supply of overseas aluminum market continued to tighten. During the week, the output reduction of dunkel smelter in France expanded to 15%. The disturbance of power cost continued or continued to increase the possibility of the expansion of the output reduction scale of European aluminum plant. In terms of China’s supply, the scope of resumption of production has been expanded, and the operating capacity has continued to rise. China’s total resumption of production capacity has reached about 240000 tons. In addition, the Winter Olympics has not had a clear impact on the production reduction of electrolytic aluminum, and the overall supply is still at a low level. In terms of demand, consumption in China’s downstream market has further weakened with the advent of the Spring Festival. In terms of inventory, as of Friday, SHFE aluminum inventory was 283000 tons, down 9.0% from the same period last week. Nickel: nickel prices rose strongly during the week. During the week, three power supply plants in Myanmar were blown up, resulting in the shutdown of ferronickel plant of Dagong Mountain project, and the fermentation of bulls raised nickel prices. Meanwhile, the tight supply and demand situation in the nickel market remains unchanged, and the inventory outside China continues to bottom. As of Friday, LME nickel inventory was about 94000 tons, down 4.4% from the same period last week; China’s Shef nickel inventory was about 4000 tons, down 15.0%. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) .
New energy metals
The price performance of new energy metals this week is relatively differentiated. Cobalt: the price of cobalt rose slightly this week. As of Friday, the spot price of cobalt in the Yangtze River was 506500 yuan / ton, up 1.30% from last week. The overall price of cobalt salt is relatively stable, and the price of cobalt sulfate is 105000 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week; The price of Co3O4 was 412500 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week. The shortage of overseas imported raw materials and the shipping pressure still exist, affecting the supply of cobalt raw materials. With the advent of the Spring Festival, the terminal stock volume has increased, and the cobalt price is expected to continue to rise steadily. Lithium: the lithium salt market maintained stable operation this week, and the price of lithium salt rose. As of Friday, the price of lithium carbonate was 332500 yuan / ton, up 9.92% year-on-year from last week; The price of lithium hydroxide was 275500 yuan / ton, up 9.98% year-on-year from last week. At present, traders have basically completed the preparation before the festival, the market trading volume has decreased, and the high lithium price is expected to maintain stable operation. It is suggested to focus on: the subject of cobalt industry integration layout Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) ; Leading enterprises with high self-sufficiency rate of lithium resources Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ; Related subjects of salt lake lithium: Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) ; Lithium mica related subject matter: Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Jiangdian special machine; Spodumene related subject matter: Sichuan New Energy Power Company Limited(000155) .
Precious metals
This week, precious metals operated in shock as a whole. Gold: as of Friday, Comex gold price was US $1836.1/oz, up 1.03% from last week; Spot gold in London was $1837.6 per ounce, up 0.80% from last week. Silver: Comex silver price was US $24.35/oz, up 5.89% from last week; The spot silver price in London was US $24.32/ounce, up 5.28%. The recent repeated global epidemic, geopolitical risks in Russia and Ukraine and concerns about high inflation have boosted the market demand for safe haven gold, and the gold price is expected to remain volatile in the short term. Suggestions: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) , Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) .
Risk tips
The demand is less than expected; The European energy crisis continues to ferment; Risk of policy changes.
