Event: the industry released the production and sales data of household air conditioners online. In December 2021, the production of household air conditioners was 12.531 million, a year-on-year decrease of 2.46%, and the sales were 11.5224 million, a year-on-year decrease of 0.32%. Among them, domestic shipments were 5.7409 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 5.37%, and exports were 5.7815 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.26%.
Both production and sales declined and exports continued to grow. In December, the domestic sales of household air conditioners decreased by 5.37% year-on-year, with a slight decrease compared with November. From the demand side, the demand is relatively weak. According to the data of ovicloud, the online and offline sales of air conditioners decreased by 35.7% and 30.91% year-on-year in December. Throughout the year, domestic sales shipped 84.7 million units in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 5.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.1% in 2019, which was lower than the expectation at the beginning of the year. The main reason was that the air conditioning industry chain was squeezed by the rapid increase of manufacturing costs caused by the rise of raw material prices and the continuous weakness of the demand side. Exports increased by 5.26% in December, continuing the growth trend. Under the background of high base, the growth rate improved significantly month on month, slightly exceeding expectations, mainly due to the preparation of goods in overseas markets at the end of the year. As exports have experienced high growth for two consecutive years, there are many uncertain factors in 2022, so it is relatively difficult to maintain high growth rate.
The domestic sales of the three major white power companies are differentiated. In December, Midea sold 4.48 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, including 2.28 million units for domestic sales, a year-on-year increase of 14% and 2.2 million units for export, a year-on-year increase of 0.92%, mainly due to the low base in the same period last year. Gree sold 2.76 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 19.1%, including 2.08 million units for domestic sales, a year-on-year decrease of 24.64% and 680000 units for export, a year-on-year increase of 4.62%, We believe that the decline of Gree’s domestic sales is obviously due to the change of channel mode and the reduction of goods pressure in the off-season. Haier’s total sales volume was 1.05 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.5%, of which 550000 units were sold domestically, the same as the same period last year, and 500000 units were exported, a year-on-year increase of 78.57%.
The concentration of air conditioning is improved. In December, Midea, Gree and Haier accounted for 38.8%, 23.9% and 9.11% of the total shipments, of which the domestic market accounted for 39.7%, 36.2% and 9.58%, and the export market accounted for 38.1%, 11.8% and 9.5%. According to the cumulative data, the total shipments of Midea, Gree and Haier accounted for 35.4%, 28% and 8.4% in 2021, an increase of 1.4, – 0.49 and 0.64pct compared with the same period last year, of which the domestic CR3 reached 81.7%, Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 2.84pct. In addition to the three major white power, the domestic market share of other brands has declined.
Investment suggestion: in December, the production and sales of air conditioners both fell, of which the domestic sales fell year-on-year and the export sales continued to grow. Throughout the year, the domestic sales of air conditioners were less than expected under the dual pressure of rising raw material costs and weak retail, and the export maintained growth under the background of high base. It is estimated that the domestic sales in 2022 will be close to that in 2021. Under the background of high growth rate for two consecutive years, it is difficult to maintain high growth rate for export sales. However, affected by the easing of the overall shipping price and container tension, the overall shipment volume is expected to remain stable. Overall, we believe that the price and cost pressure of raw materials is expected to improve marginally, the dividend pattern of the air conditioning industry will be reflected, and the profitability of white power leaders is expected to improve gradually. Due to many adjustments in 2021, the valuation of white power faucet is at a relatively low position in history and the safety margin is high. It is recommended to Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) (000333), Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) (000651) and Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) (600690).
Risk warning: risk of raw material price fluctuation; Risk of export order transfer; The risk that the recovery of industry prosperity is less than expected.
