Express delivery: in December, the price of Tongda department was generally stable and the growth rate of pieces was differentiated; The growth rate of SF parts fell, and the unit price continued to grow positively year-on-year; Optimistic about the inflection point of high-quality development of express industry.
1) in December, the volume and price performance of Tongda Express were differentiated, the overall price was in line with expectations, and the improvement of profitability was determined: the growth rate of express business volume of Tongda express in December was Yunda + 22.16% (mom + 3.13pts), Yuantong + 6.17% (mom -7.22pts), Shentong + 19.58% (mom + 2.90pts). We believe that the main reasons for the fluctuation of Yuantong’s monthly growth rate are: ① the differentiation of competitive strategy, the firm implementation of price increase policy and the optimization of customer structure. ② High cardinality effect. Yunda’s growth rate is ahead of its peers, mainly due to the company’s business adjustment in the core grain producing areas, the release of reform dividends and relatively flexible business strategy. Unit price of each company: Yunda + 2.17% year on year and – 1.26% month on month (down 0.03 yuan); Yuantong was + 12.99% year-on-year and – 3.47% month on month (down 0.09 yuan); Shentong was + 4.72% year-on-year and -0.81% month on month (down 0.02 yuan). The overall price performance of Tongda department was stable in December. Looking forward to 2022, the price of short-term Spring Festival Holiday Express is strong, and we pay attention to the price trend in the off-season after the Spring Festival. At the same time, we believe that under the policy supervision, the shift of leading business strategy and the demand for high-quality development of the industry, the annual price probability of the industry remains stable and the year-on-year improvement is considerable.
2) in December, the growth rate of SF parts slowed down, and the unit price increased positively for two consecutive months: in December, SF parts increased by + 8.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 5.6pts compared with November. We think the main reasons are: ① macro and consumption pressure, and the growth rate of industry demand slowed down; ② The company actively controls the scale of economic parts, adjusts the structure of parts quantity, and emphasizes the quality of profit; ③ Affected by the high base, the growth rate of SF parts volume in December 2020 was 48.97%. In terms of price, the unit price of SF in December was + 0.43% year-on-year and + 3.86% month on month (up 0.61 yuan), with a positive year-on-year growth rate for two consecutive months. Looking forward to 2022, we believe that the company’s basic market is stable, and there is more room for profit improvement under the background of practicing healthy operation; In addition, the operation of Ezhou airport and the merger and acquisition of Kerry Logistics have brought new growth points, and the company will usher in an inflection point.
The price of follow-up access system remains stable, the medium and long-term development direction is determined under policy supervision, and the industry inflection point and leading competitiveness are optimistic. Shunfeng has established the inflection point of operation and is optimistic about the leading value of comprehensive logistics. The policy promotes franchised express delivery to curb irrational competition and emphasize high-quality development. The price center of Tongda express delivery moves upward. It is expected that the profits of leading enterprises will be significantly improved in 2022; On the supply side, after Jitu acquired Baishi, it once again strengthened the competition pattern of the industry head; From a medium and long-term perspective, under the background of continuous improvement of online penetration, the demand growth of the express industry is highly deterministic, and service has become a new competitive factor. After the pattern is stable, the industry leaders will fully benefit from the increase of share and profit; A shares mainly recommend S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) (the inflection point of fundamentals is established), Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , and US stocks are optimistic about China Express.
Aviation: the air travel data of 2022 Spring Festival transportation has improved year-on-year. The tourism industry planning of the 14th five year plan releases the expectation of international liberalization and is optimistic about the reversal of industry supply and demand after the epidemic.
1) in 2022, the number of flights and occupancy rate in the first five days of the Spring Festival transportation improved year-on-year, and attention was paid to the recovery of demand near the holiday: as of January 21, the average daily number of flights in the first five days of the Spring Festival transportation was 9374. Compared with 2020, the overall number of flights returned to the level of 60% before the epidemic, while it returned to the level of 45% before the epidemic in the same period of 2021, and the number of flights recovered significantly. In addition, the average occupancy rate in the four days before the Spring Festival transportation was 48.5%, 38.8% in the same period last year and 68.4% in 2020. The passenger occupancy rate recovered significantly year-on-year, but there is still a gap compared with that before the epidemic. In the short term, affected by the repeated epidemic situation in various parts of China, some consumers still hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the return policy. With the further clarification of the travel policy and the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, the demand for air return is expected to further recover, and the seating rate is expected to continue to rise.
2) during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the tourism industry proposed to launch the inbound tourism promotion action in time and release the marginal improvement expectation of international travel policy: on January 20, the State Council issued the tourism development plan of the 14th five year plan. The plan mentions that the promotion action of inbound tourism shall be launched in due time, and the supporting policies for inbound tourism development shall be issued to promote the high-quality development of inbound tourism; It also proposes to strengthen communication with tourist source countries and places in terms of international shipping, border passage, vaccination, tourism team organization, medical insurance and so on. This plan releases the marginal improvement expectation of international travel policy and guides the gradual liberalization of the process in the future. In the future, China will liberalize its air routes or form travel bubbles through mutual consultation with various source countries, and gradually increase the number of travel bubble countries until it is fully liberalized. At present, international routes still implement strict circuit breaker policy, and their operation is still low due to the impact of Omicron virus. Marginal attention is paid to the inflection point of travel policy.
On the demand side, the worst period of the epidemic is basically over. With the promotion of vaccination and specific drugs, the suppressed travel demand will gradually recover. On the supply side, the introduction of airlines’ transport capacity is slow, Boeing and Airbus orders accumulate, and even the 737max go around still does not change the low growth rate of transport capacity. The low growth rate of supply in the medium term has high certainty. In addition, the market-oriented reform of civil aviation ticket prices has opened up the space for price elasticity. The inflection point of supply and demand certainty is superimposed on the upward ticket price, and aviation is expected to usher in a round of growth cycle. Focus on recommending Air China Limited(601111) with high-quality routes (which will significantly benefit from the recovery of official travel); Low cost aviation leader Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) ; China line accounts for a high proportion of China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) with high performance flexibility; China Eastern Airlines with obvious location advantages; Focus on Regional Airlines China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) .
Airport: the airport continued to suffer losses in 2021; The recovery of international flight passenger release is expected, and the airport duty-free business is expected to recover gradually.
1) in 2021 Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) continued to suffer losses and Q4 achieved profits: on January 21, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) issued a performance forecast for 2021, which is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of -465 to -381 million yuan, an increase from -250 million yuan in 2020. Among them, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 was 25-109 million yuan, up from 49 million yuan in the same period last year, with a year-on-year increase of 36.4% based on the median value of the notice. Under the influence of the epidemic in 2021, the passenger flow of the airport will reduce the impact on demand, the cost of prevention and control will increase, and the airport operation will continue to suffer losses. With the gradual decline of China’s international epidemic in 2022, the airport performance is expected to improve marginally.
2) the 14th five year plan released the expected improvement of international flight policies. The United States suspended 44 American Chinese flights of Air China. On the eve of the inflection point of international airline passenger flow, the airport duty-free business is expected to gradually recover: this week’s 14th five year plan for tourism development proposed to timely start the promotion action of inbound tourism and issue inbound tourism development support policies to promote the high-quality development of inbound tourism. On January 21, the US Department of transportation announced that it would suspend 44 US flights to China operated by four Chinese airlines in response to China’s policy. The cancellation of Air China flights by the United States is not for the sake of epidemic prevention and control. It is intended to force China to relax travel policies. We believe that under the premise of strict prevention of overseas input, China’s international flight policy may be marginally improved in 2022. On the eve of the inflection point of international airline passenger flow, the airport duty-free business is expected to enter the recovery stage.
The short-term airport aviation business has declined due to the disturbance of the epidemic, and the epidemic in China is generally controllable. With the continuous promotion of vaccination, China’s international aviation passenger flow is expected to gradually recover.
In the long run, the airport’s aviation business is stable, while the tax-free industry has huge space. Listed airports will continue to benefit from tax-free dividends in the future, focusing on the airport leaders Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) .
Highway and Railway: the 14th five year plan proposes to build and improve the comprehensive transportation network and speed up the construction of railway network and the improvement of transportation efficiency: according to the development plan of modern comprehensive transportation system in the 14th five year plan, China will add 19000 kilometers of railway business mileage and 302000 kilometers of highway traffic mileage during the 14th Five Year Plan period, The high-speed railway network covers more than 95% of cities with a population of more than 500000. At the same time, we should build and improve the comprehensive transportation network with the “ten vertical and ten horizontal” comprehensive transportation channels as the backbone, the comprehensive transportation hub as the fulcrum, and the multi-level network of fast network, trunk network and basic network as the support, so as to accelerate the upgrading of railway transportation trunk roads and continuously improve the efficiency of railway transportation. In addition, it is necessary to upgrade and transform the China EU railway ports and the “neck” sections in the rear, and speed up the upgrading of technical equipment and information construction. The further improvement of the railway network, the continuous improvement of transportation efficiency and the sustainable development of China Europe trains are expected to continue to improve China’s railway freight logistics capacity, improve the timeliness capacity and enrich transportation varieties, so as to promote the steady growth of the industry.
Investment strategy of this week: after the peak season, the industry price remains stable, the policy supervision determines the future growth expectation and high-quality development path of the industry, the short-term access system profit will be significantly repaired, the industry will gradually turn to service differentiated competition, and be optimistic about the inflection point and leading value of the industry. In addition, Shunfeng, the leader of comprehensive logistics, ushers in the operation inflection point; The aviation Spring Festival transportation data improved year-on-year, China’s demand continued to recover, and the international line released marginal improvement expectations. At the same time, the supply certainty slowed down. It is optimistic about the reversal of supply and demand in the aviation industry, the superposition of fare market-oriented reform to open up flexible space, and the industry is optimistic about entering the growth cycle. Combination this week: S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Air China Limited(601111) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) .
Risk tips:
1) the risk of macroeconomic downturn will have a great impact on the overall demand for transportation.
2) the price competition in the express industry exceeds the market expectation. At present, the price war in the express industry is generally controllable, but it does not rule out a large-scale price war, eroding the profits of listed companies.
3) risk of rising oil price and labor cost. Transportation and labor costs, as the main costs of transportation companies, may face the risk of rising oil prices and sharply rising labor costs.
