Copper aluminum, cobalt lithium and precious metal sectors are recommended. This week (January 17-january 21, 2022), the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 1.11%, the SW nonferrous index fell 2.82%, Comex gold rose 1.03% and silver rose 5.89%. Among the prices of major industrial metals, LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin changed by 1.19%, 2.08%, 3.22%, – 0.82%, 8.71% and 7.22% respectively; LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin in major industrial metal inventories changed by – 2.87%, 15.61%, 8.72%, 1.42%, 4.36% and 2.33% respectively.
Industrial metals: under the background of China’s stable economy, strong downstream demand and tight supply support the overall upward trend of industrial metal prices. Core view: China’s steady growth continues to develop, the construction in downstream areas is stronger than that in the same period, and the overall performance of industrial metals is not weak in the off-season. In terms of copper, China’s wide credit, low inventory and less than expected import supply supported the rise of internal prices; The US dollar index fluctuated widely and the expectation of interest rate increase continued to advance, but the market trading logic is that the economy is recovering strongly and the external price is supported. In terms of aluminum, near the Spring Festival, China’s supply side and demand side operated at a low level, and inventories remained low. Under the pessimistic expectation of energy shortage in Europe, aluminum prices continued to rise. In terms of tin, there are still risks in the overseas supply chain. Under the stable growth, it is expected that the demand will remain strong and the inventory will remain low, pushing up the tin price. In terms of nickel, LME and Chinese inventories have fallen to a very low level and are expected to continue to go to the warehouse in the future. Pure nickel social inventory and bonded area inventory continue to decline, and foreign and Chinese spot tensions have catalyzed a sharp rise in nickel prices. Focus on: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) , Ye Chiu Metal Recycling (China) Ltd(601388) , Yunnan Tin Co.Ltd(000960) etc.
Energy metals: the supply before the festival decreased, the contradiction between supply and demand intensified, and the prices of lithium and cobalt continued to rise. Core view: in January 2022, the pre arranged single ring ratio increased, and the downstream demand for electric vehicles was strong. In terms of cobalt, in addition to the inventory replenishment by enterprises before the year, the recent increase in demand of downstream battery plants, the shortage of raw materials and the small amount of spot in the market will jointly support the high price of electric cobalt, and the price is expected to continue to rise slightly in the later stage. In terms of lithium, in terms of supply, the maintenance of some lithium salt plants in January led to a reduction in supply, which was hard to find in the market. In addition, near the Spring Festival, the logistics will stop one after another next week, and the overseas import volume may remain low from January to February due to the Christmas holiday. On the demand side, after the Spring Festival, due to the poor downstream goods preparation, it is expected that the price will not be stable or fall as in previous years, or will continue to rise. Focus on: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) etc.
Precious metals: gold prices are supported by global inflation expectations. Core view: US CPI has reached a new high since 1982. Under the epidemic, the uncertainty of global economic recovery still exists, and we continue to be optimistic about the investment value of gold. Under the soaring inflation, the market’s view that the Fed can finally control inflation limits the rise of gold price, but the overseas epidemic is still severe and the momentum of economic recovery is weak. At the same time, under the acceleration of inflation, gold price still has strong support and is still optimistic about the future gold price. Focus on: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) , Zhaojin mining industry and Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) .
Risk warning: the recovery of demand is less than expected, the release of supply is more than expected, and the uncertainty of policy is increased.
