The national development and Reform Commission and other seven ministries and commissions issued the notice of the implementation plan for promoting green consumption on January 21. The notice requires to further stimulate the green power consumption potential of the whole society. Establish a linkage mechanism between green power trading and renewable energy consumption responsibility weight, and market-oriented users complete the renewable energy consumption responsibility weight by purchasing green power or green certificate. Strengthen the connection with carbon emission trading, and study the feasibility of deducting carbon emissions related to green power in emission accounting.
At present, the scale of green power trading is small. The scheme encourages multiple market players to enter and expand the scope of green power trading. From the perspective of the annual long-term association, the average price of Guangdong market is 0.4970 yuan / kWh, the average price of green electricity is 0.5139 yuan / kWh, and there is a small premium for green electricity; The average market price in Jiangsu is 0.4667 yuan / kWh, and the average green power price is 0.4629 yuan / kWh, which is lower than the average transaction price; In addition, green power transactions in both markets account for no more than 1% of the total, and the green power premium is not obvious. The plan encourages industry leading enterprises, large state-owned enterprises and multinational corporations to consume green power, strengthens the rigid constraints on the use of green power by high energy consuming enterprises, further expands the scope of green power trading subjects and increases the demand, which is expected to further boost the green power premium space.
The plan links the green power transaction with the weight of renewable energy consumption responsibility, and decomposes the hard consumption indicators to market entities to stimulate the green power demand of all entities. When the weight of consumption responsibility of market entities is not completed, they are willing to buy green power through market transactions. If the assessment of the weight of renewable energy consumption responsibility is gradually expanded and the indicators are improved year by year, the demand for green power will be more vigorous and the green power premium will be gradually increased. More and more enterprises need to purchase green electricity or green certificates through market-oriented means to realize consumption responsibility. The prospect of increasing the demand for green electricity trading is clear. The scale of green electricity trading is further expanded, the green electricity premium is more obvious, and the internal rate of return of new energy projects is improved. In the long run, it will help to promote the normalization and healthy development of green electricity trading market.
Link the green power market with the carbon market and clarify the value transmission system of green power. The green electricity market and the carbon emission right market are linked, and the emission reduction effect achieved by the green electricity transaction is calculated into the final carbon emission results of the corresponding users, so as to avoid the repeated payment of environmental costs by power enterprises in the power market and carbon market. After the green electricity market is linked to the carbon market, in the long run, users may deduct the total carbon emissions by directly purchasing green electricity. For market players, this method is more convenient and easy to implement than CCER. With the continuous improvement of the policy system, the linkage of green power, green certificate and carbon emission right is expected to be further strengthened to jointly help improve the market value of green power environmental attributes.
Investment suggestion: the release of the implementation plan for promoting green consumption has made it clear that the weight of green power trading and renewable energy consumption responsibility is linked, and the green power market is linked to the carbon market. It puts forward comprehensive guidelines for establishing and improving the green power consumption mechanism, further highlights the environmental attribute value of green power, and maintains the “recommended” rating of the industry. In terms of individual stocks, it is suggested to pay attention to Longyuan Power, Tianjin Guangyu Development Co.Ltd(000537) , China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , Nyocor Co.Ltd(600821) , Cecep Wind-Power Corporation(601016) , Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , Jilin Electric Power Co.Ltd(000875) , Zhongmin Energy Co.Ltd(600163) and CGN new energy, which are the high-quality targets of green power; Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) , China Resources Power, Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) , Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) , Huadian Power International Corporation Limited(600027) , Guangzhou Development Group Incorporated(600098) , Guangdong Electric Power Development Co.Ltd(000539) , Shenergy Company Limited(600642) of thermal power transformation to new energy; The target of nuclear power operation leader China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) ; Distributed photovoltaic field Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Ganghua gas, Skyworth Group, Zhejiang Sunoren Solar Technology Co.Ltd(603105) , Hangzhou Star Shuaier Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002860) .
Risk tip: the risk of macroeconomic downturn, policy promotion is less than expected, the installed capacity of new energy is less than expected, the risk of price reduction, power trading is less than expected, and the company’s performance is less than expected.
