This week, the home appliance sector increased by 2.9%, of which the white electricity / Black electricity / kitchen electricity / small household appliances sector increased by 5.4% / – 2.7% / 1.0% / – 4.0% respectively. White electricity and kitchen electricity sectors performed well, with white electricity sector Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) leading the rise, with a weekly increase of 7.5%; Kitchen electricity sector Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) , Zhejiang Meida Industrial Co.Ltd(002677) , Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) performed well, with weekly increases of 4.0%, 3.6% and 2.6%. The small household appliances sector Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) , Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) performed well, with weekly increases of 9.0% and 8.7%. In terms of raw materials, the prices of main raw materials increased in varying degrees month on month, with LME copper, LME aluminum, steel and plastics rising by 0.7% respectively. 3.4%、0.3%、1.2%。
The local Chinese New Year is good for small kitchens, and the additional purchase rate has increased significantly. According to Guojin’s consumption strategy, the additional purchase index of small kitchen appliances increased by 22% over the same period last year. From the perspective of transaction volume, the month on month growth rate of food and beverage fast food dishes / porridge is bright, about 110%; Among the small household appliances in the kitchen, the transaction volume of kebab / electric baking pan, multi-functional cooking pot and soybean milk machine ranked first, with a month on month increase of more than 50%. With the Spring Festival approaching, many places in the country have issued epidemic prevention and control requirements during the Spring Festival, advocating citizens to “celebrate the new year on the spot”, and the demand for home appliances has increased. It is expected to usher in the strong demand for small kitchen appliances again.
The social zero growth rate fell; The siphon effect of double 11 is significant, and the performance of home appliance social zero in December is weak. In December 2021, the total social retail sales reached 4126.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, and the growth rate decreased by 2.2pct month on month. Throughout the year, China’s total social zero in 2021 was 44082.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.5% and a compound 19-year increase of 3.5%. Affected by the overdraft effect of the double 11 promotion, the overall performance of optional consumption is relatively weak. Among them, the total amount of household appliance cooperatives in December was 93.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6% (November was + 6.6%); In 2021, it was 934 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10% and a compound 19-year increase of 1.1%.
The two LPR varieties were down regulated synchronously and continued to pay attention to the post cycle repair. The national interbank lending center authorized by the people’s Bank of China announced that the quoted interest rate (LPR) of the loan market on January 20, 2022 was: the one-year LPR was 3.7%, a decrease of 10bp compared with the previous month; LPR over 5 years was 4.6%, a decrease of 5bp compared with last month. As the benchmark interest rate of housing loan interest rate, the 5-year LPR has a positive signal effect on the real estate industry or drive the recovery of real estate sales. The white electricity and kitchen electricity sectors in the post real estate cycle are expected to benefit first.
Investment advice
White electricity and kitchen electricity faucets have high turnover efficiency and strong ability to raise prices. 22q1 has high certainty of performance improvement with the decline of raw material prices, and the post cycle demand of real estate is expected to be released quarterly. It is suggested to actively layout Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) before and after the annual report. The small household appliance sector Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) and other sectors have been subject to the pressure of high base in 21 years, and the performance of 22q1 is expected to improve with the recovery of demand; Q2 improvements such as Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) , Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) are expected to be high, but according to its preparation cycle, 21q4 and 22q1 correspond to high price inventory, and the export business is greatly affected by the sea price. It is expected that 21q4 and 22q1 may still be under certain pressure, but it is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by the fluctuation of stock price before and after the annual report.
Risk tips
The risk of rising raw material prices, the risk of less than expected demand, the risk of repeated outbreaks, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations, and the risk of chip out of stock and rising prices.
