Sub industry core week view
Vehicle: January February is the traditional off-season, and the terminal data is vulnerable to fluctuations due to policy switching, holidays and other factors, but there is no risk in the medium and long term. Electric vehicles have been driven by spontaneous demand at the C-end, and factors such as subsidy decline and upstream price rise worried by the market recently are expected to have little impact on the terminal in 22 years; According to the data of 20 / 21 years, due to the decline of subsidies in 21 years, the retail / insurance volume of 21q1 new energy vehicles decreased by - 15% / - 19% month on month, but the growth rate of q2-q4 maintained more than 30% month on month, and the growth rate of Q4 was 45% month on month compared with Q3. It is expected that the new energy vehicle market will continue to maintain the J-shaped growth trend in 2022. Vehicle investment opportunities: look at the vehicle cycle in the medium term, and pay attention to companies with strong intelligent R & D and data capabilities in the long term.
Parts: TSMC announced its 22-year capex plan and downstream demand outlook. The prosperity of HPC and automotive semiconductors was higher than market expectations. Intellectualization is an important starting point for OEMs to create product differentiation. From the beginning of 22 years, the penetration rate of intelligent sub circuits is expected to accelerate. The focus is on the direction with large marginal changes in permeability and localization rate. 1) Direction of penetration improvement: intelligent chassis (air suspension, brake by wire, CDC shock absorption, etc.), thermal management heat pump, integrated casting, vehicle HEPA and other fields; 2) The promotion direction of localization rate: controller, micro motor, audio, tire, IGBT and other fields.
Battery: Recently, battery industry chain companies have successively released performance forecasts. The performance of 4q21 in positive pole and other links increased significantly month on month, and the sector exceeded the market expectation. We believe that 4q21 is the node where the performance of the midstream begins to be realized, and 1q22 upstream lithium and other resource products will begin to gradually realize the performance, focusing on the changes in profit distribution caused by the price transmission of the industrial chain. According to the recent grassroots research results, compared with December 21, the industry output in January 22 continued to increase by about 5% month on month, and the off-season was not light. We judge that the capacity constraint of high energy consumption is still strong; The sector recently pulled back to near pe30x in 22 years and began to enter the strong allocation value range. Focus on the links with strong global competitiveness, such as batteries, diaphragms, positive electrodes, structural parts, carbon black, aluminum plastic film and other auxiliary materials with improved localization rate, negative electrodes and PVDF with tight balance between supply and demand.
Important industry events this week
1) Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) release the performance forecast for 2021; 2) Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) release the performance forecast for 2021; 3) Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) release the power exchange brand evogo and power exchange solutions; 4) Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) announcement: the company signed the 2022 supply guarantee framework cooperation agreement with China Innovation Airlines; 5) Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) release the performance forecast for 2021; 6) Anhui Estone Materials Technology Co.Ltd(688733) release the performance forecast for 2021; 7) Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) released the performance forecast for 2021.
Recommended portfolio of sub industries
See the text on the next page for details.
Risk tips:
The sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected; The price competition in the industrial chain is more intense than expected; Risk of policy changes.
